CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Geopolitical volatility and wheat prices continued to drive the corn market as prices softened for the third straight session. Corn prices fought off early session lows but still ended the session slightly lower. July corn was 1 cent lower to 467 ½, and December slipped ½ cent to 489 ½.
• On going headlines regarding the US-Iran War influenced the price action in the grain markets. Late session headlines regarding the failure of potential peace deal supported energy markets, helping lift corn futures off session lows.
• USDA released weekly export inspections on Thursday morning. For the week ending April 30, Corn export sales were 53.6 MB for old crop and 4.8 MB for new crop. This total was softer than last week, but within expectations. Corn export sales remained 29% ahead of last year.
• Corn planting pace should run ahead of schedule this week as the weather forecast remains colder than normal, but dry going into next week. Frost concerns over the corn belt for the next couple of nights will be a concern for early planted, emerging crops.
• Managed Money has been exiting the recent long position in the corn markets. It was estimated that funds sold over 40,000 net long positions with the market weakness on Tuesday and Wednesday.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly lower but came back significantly from early morning lows after seeing prices as much as 13 cents lower. July soybeans lost 2-1/2 cents to $11.92-1/4 while November lost 2 cents to $11.74-1/2. July soybean meal gained $1.60 to $318.90 and July soybean oil lost 0.87 cents to 74.15 cents despite a reversal in crude oil slightly higher.
• Today’s volatility was driven by shifting headlines surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Early optimism pushed crude oil prices nearly $5 per barrel lower, pressuring the soy complex through soybean oil and biofuels demand expectations. By the close, crude oil had recovered slightly after reports circulated that Iran viewed the U.S. proposal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as “unrealistic.”
• Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales sharply below expectations with an increase of 5.2 million bushels for 25/26 and 0.2 mb for 26/27. This was a marketing year low, down 45% from the previous week, and down 51% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were China, Japan, and Indonesia. Last week’s export shipments of 19.5 mb were above the 17.5 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.
• Malaysian palm oil prices have been increasing rapidly and are expected to rise by an additional 12% to $1,316 per metric ton by mid-July. Higher crude oil prices have been the primary driver behind the gains in palm oil, crude oil, and corn for ethanol. Increasing demand for biodiesels are tightening supply.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat continued to weaken today, with HRW contracts leading the move lower as lower energy prices and optimism surrounding a potential end to the Iran conflict pressured the broader grain complex. However, crude oil recovered back to near unchanged late in the session after reports indicated Iran viewed the proposed Strait of Hormuz agreement as “unrealistic,” helping stabilize outside market pressure. In July contracts, Chicago wheat fell 5 cents to $6.12-1/4, Kansas City dropped 19-3/4 cents to $6.67-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 18-1/4 cents to $6.73-3/4.
• The USDA reported an increase of 2.9 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and an increase of 6.9 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 17.4 mb, which falls under the 18.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s 900 mb export goal. Nevertheless, total wheat export commitments for 25/26 have reached 910 mb, up 16% from last year.
• Despite freezing temperatures across portions of the southwestern Plains, only limited damage is expected to the winter wheat crop. Colorado and western Kansas also received some snowfall, which may provide modest drought relief and likely added pressure to Kansas City wheat futures today.
• According to Statistics Canada, all wheat stocks as of March 31 totaled 19.47 mmt, up 12.0% from 17.38 mmt last year. The larger supplies likely contributed to today’s weaker trade and bear spreading in spring wheat futures.
• An estimate from Rusagrotrans suggests that Russia’s May wheat exports may reach 2.5 mmt, which if realized, would be 19% greater than the amount shipped in May 2025. April exports were also above a year ago, totaling 3.95 mmt versus 2.39 mmt last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite making a new high of year during yesterday’s session, the block/barrel average cheese market ran into sellers Thursday, taking the price down 2.25c.
• Powder was strong once again with futures up as much as 4.50c while the spot trade closed at an all-time high of $1.6150/lb.
• Nearby Class IV hit new all-time highs in both the May and June contracts. The market loves the momentum in powder, as it keeps making new highs. 
• Despite the down day, spot butter is still up 7.50c this week, helping to fuel Class IV higher. 
• Nearby Class III remains under pressure from the low cheese market. May Class III is barely hanging on to the $17.00 handle.

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Author

John Heinberg