TFM Morning Update 05-11-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning and are likely following wheat, but frost and freeze this morning in the northern Corn Belt are bullish as well. July corn is up 3-1/4 cents to $4.74-1/4 while December is up 3-1/2 cents to $4.97.
In Brazil, it is being reported that dry weather conditions in the state of Mato Grosso, which is a key growing state, may affect the second crop corn development. This along with hot conditions could harm yields.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as net buyers of corn by a whopping 79,822 contracts as of May 5. This increased their net long position to 343,925 contracts which is very near a record long position.

Soybeans are trading sharply higher to start the day with funds bullish about President Trump’s meeting with China. It is being reported that Trump may push China on its dealings with Iran which could cause tension. July soybeans are up 12-1/2 cents to $12.20-3/4 while November is up 9-3/4 cents to 11.99-1/. July soybean meal is up $4.70 to $324.40 and July bean oil up 0.64 cents to 74.96 cents.
Estimates for tomorrows WASDE report see soybean production in the US at 4.445 bb which would be up slightly from last year’s 4.262 bb. US ending stocks for 25/26 are expected to be unchanged while 26/27 ending stocks are projected at 364 mb.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 36,335 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 221,617 contracts. They bought 3,417 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 169,142 contracts and sold 10,252 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 110,937 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with general bullish sentiment across the grain complex. July Chicago wheat is up 7-1/2 cents to $6.26-1/2 cents, KC wheat is up 6-3/4 cents to $6.82-1/2, and Minn is up 7 cents to $6.85-1/2.
In Turkey, wheat output is expected to recover sharply from last year’s poor production caused by severe droughts. Output for 2026 is expected to rise by 20% to roughly 22 million tons. Turkey is one of the world’s largest wheat buyers, and increased production could curb imports.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 20,567 contracts leaving them with a net short position of 9,903 contracts. They bought 7,245 contracts of KC wheat leaving them long 37,869 contracts.

Amanda Brill