CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Buying strength supported the corn market to start the week as positive money flow, stronger energy prices, and optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations helped support prices. July corn gained 4 cents to $4.75-1/4, while December futures added 4-1/4 cents to $4.97-3/4.
• USDA will release the May WASDE report on Tuesday morning. This report will provide the first official outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year. Using March Prospective Plantings acreage of 95.3 million and a trendline yield of 183 bpa, early estimates place ending stocks near 1.93 billion bushels.
• Weakness in the cease-fire with Iran helped support crude oil prices, challenging back to the $100/barrel level. Corn futures have been more corelated with crude oil during this last rally.
• Weekly export inspection remains supportive of prices as 1.691 MMT (66.6 mb) of corn was shipped for the week ending May 7. Corn inspections are running 31% over last year.
• USDA announced two flash export sales of corn on Monday morning. Mexico purchased 380,000 MT (15 mb) of corn split between the next two crop years. Of the total, 220,000 MT (8.7 mb) for the 2025-26 marketing year and 160,000 MT (6.3 mb) for the 2026-27 marketing year. In addition, South Korea added 128,000 MT (5.8 mb) for the 2025-26 marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were higher to end the day but fell from stronger prices earlier in the session. Higher crude oil prices supported the complex as the U.S. and Iran failed to agree on peace negotiations. July soybeans gained 5 cents to $12.13 while November gained 5-1/4 cents to $11.94-3/4. July soybean meal gained $5.10 to $324.80 while July soybean oil lost 0.58 cents to 73.74.
• Today’s Export Inspections report was within analyst expectations for soybeans and saw them total 24.1 million bushels for the week ending May 7. Total inspections are now at 1.249 billion bushels for 25/26, which is down 23% from the previous year. The USDA is expecting that total exports will be down 18% from the previous year.
• Tomorrow the USDA will release its WASDE report and analysts have pegged U.S. soybean production at 4.445 billion bushels, up from 4.262 billion last season, with yields expected unchanged at 53.0 bpa. U.S. ending stocks are projected near 345 million bushels, while global ending stocks are expected to edge slightly higher to 125.31 MMT.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 36,335 contracts of soybeans as of May 5, which increased their net long position to 221,617 contracts. They bought 3,417 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 169,142 contracts and sold 10,252 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 110,937 contracts.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 36,335 contracts of soybeans, which increased their net long position to 221,617 contracts. They bought 3,417 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 169,142 contracts and sold 10,252 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 110,937 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Both winter wheat classes made double-digit gains today with spring wheat following closely behind. Energy prices rebounded after President Trump rejected Iran’s counteroffer to the U.S. peace proposal, which gave the grain market a boost. The U.S. dollar trending lower and a higher close for MATIF wheat were also supportive factors. In the July contract, Chicago climbed 15 cents to 634, Kansas City gained 10-1/2 cents to 686-1/4, and MIAX closed 8 cents higher at 686-1/2.
• Weekly wheat export inspections were pegged at 18.8 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 841 mb, up 13% from last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s estimated pace; exports in 25/26 are projected at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• Tomorrow, traders will receive the USDA’s monthly WASDE report. The average pre-report estimate for U.S. all wheat production comes in at 1.731 bb, compared to 1.985 bb last season. Winter wheat is expected to account for 1.201 bb of that total, down from 1.402 bb a year ago.
• For tomorrow’s report, U.S. 25/26 wheat carryout is projected at 933 mb, which would be a 5 mb decrease from last month, if realized. For the 26/27 season, U.S. wheat ending stocks are forecasted at 841 mb. Global 25/26 wheat carryout is expected to decline 0.1 mmt from last month to 283.0 mmt, and 26/27 ending stocks are estimated at 281.2 mmt.
• Turkey is expecting to see domestic 2026 wheat production jump a sharp 20% over last year’s, to 22 mmt. In 2025 they suffered extreme drought, which curbed yields. If realized, this production figure would be near the record from 2015 at 22.6 mmt. This may also lead to a reduction in imports by one of the world’s biggest wheat buyers.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk continues to drift lower on a lack of a catalyst and a fairly weak spot trade at the moment.
• The block/barrel average cheese price once again closed just above the $1.60/lb mark to $1.61125/lb. The trade was flat for the day.
• Spot butter drifted 2c lower to $1.6450/lb while spot powder came off of all-time highs, down 0.50c to $2.2850/lb.
• Expect a quiet week on the news front. No major reports are expected, and the next GDT auction won’t take place until next week.
• Nearby Class III was double digits lowers, while the Class IV trade weakened as many as $0.42.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty