CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw follow-through buying strength, supported by gains in the broader grain complex and optimism surrounding potential Chinese demand, despite the May WASDE report coming in slightly heavier than expected. July corn gained 4 ¾ cents to 480, December corn added 4 ¼ cents to 502.
• The May WASDE report brought little surprise to the corn balance sheet. A slight adjustment in the Feed/residual category added 15 MB to old crop carryout at 2.142 billion bushels. For the first projections of the 2026-27 marketing year, carryout was projected at 1.957 billion bushels, slightly higher than market expectations.
• The USDA raised the estimate for Argentina corn by 7 MMT to pull in line with market expectations of a record 60+ MMT crop. The USDA forecasted global corn carryout at 277.4 MMT, which is down 19 MMT from last year. Global corn stock-to-use is projected at a 14-year low.
• As President Trump head to China for the next round of trade negotiations, rumors of possible interest by China for US corn exports have brought some support to the markets. Headline news over the next few days will likely have an impact on the markets in general.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher following a friendly WASDE report. Traders are also optimistic ahead of tomorrow’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while higher crude oil prices added additional support to the complex. July soybeans gained 13-3/4 cents to $12.26-3/4 while November gained 10-1/4 cents to $12.05. July soybean meal gained $3.60 to $328.40 while soybean oil gained 1.62 cents to 75.36 cents. Crude oil is up $4.57 to $102.65.
• Highlights from today’s WASDE report showed 2025/26 soybean planted acreage at 81.2 million acres with total production projected at 4.374 billion bushels, slightly above trade expectations. The bullish portion of the report came from lower ending stocks, with 2025/26 stocks reduced to 325 million bushels and 2026/27 stocks lowered to 310 million bushels due to stronger crush and export demand. Both figures came in well below estimates.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that 49% of the soybean crop has been planted, which is up from 33% last week and is ahead of the 5-year average of 36% this time of year. 20% of the crop is emerged which compared to 13% last week and the average of 12% at this time of year.
• In Brazil, the planted acreage of soybeans for 26/27 is expected to grow by 1.7% at roughly 50 million hectares, but this would be the slowest growth in acreage in 10 years. The last time soybean acreage growth was below 2% was 2017.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After today’s WASDE data was released, wheat made massive strides upward, with several contracts closing the 45-cent limit higher. Wheat also continues to be supported by concerns about the impact of drought here in the US in addition to the global effects of the Middle East conflict. In the July contract, Chicago gained 45 cents to 679, Kansas City was up 45 cents at 731-1/4, and MIAX climbed 37-1/2 cents to 724.
• In today’s report, US 26/27 all wheat production was estimated at 1.561 bb, which was below even the low end on the range of pre-report estimates and compares with 1.985 bb last year. If realized, this would be the smallest crop since 1972. Winter wheat production, specifically, was pegged at 1.048 bb, also below the low end of estimates, and compares with 1.402 bb last year.
• The USDA lowered US 25/26 wheat ending stocks by 3 mb from last month to 935 mb. However, for 26/27, carryout was pegged at 762 mb, which was only 2 mb above the low on the range of estimates; the trade was looking for a figure closer to 841 mb. On the world numbers, they estimated 25/26 carryout at 279.2 mmt versus 283.1 last month, and for 26/27 they estimated ending stocks at 275.0 mmt; this was also well below expectations and in line with the low end of pre-report estimates.
• Wheat was showing strength even before today’s report data, likely due to another drop in condition. Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that as of May 10, 28% of the US winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, a decline of 3% from the week before. Additionally, 61% of the crop is headed versus 51% last year and 45% on average. As for spring wheat, 53% of the crop is planted compared with 63% a year ago and 51% average. An estimated 23% of that crop has emerged, falling under last year’s 25% reading but above the average of 19%.
• This week the Wheat Quality Council will complete their annual HRW wheat tour in Kansas. General expectations are for scouts to find the crop under stress due to drought and recent freezing temperatures. While this may be already anticipated by traders, it would likely still help to keep prices supported.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III saw quiet, two-sided movement today with the second month June contract up a nickel to $17.23.
• Spot cheese was up 0.3750 cents today to $1.6150/lb while spot whey was once again unchanged at $0.70/lb.
• June Class IV futures finished up 15 cents at $22.31 today while the July through December contracts were all lower.
• Both butter and powder were unchanged in the spot trade today.

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Author

John Heinberg