TFM Midday Update 05-15-2026

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday as optimism surrounding potential Chinese purchases of U.S. corn continues to fade. July corn futures are down 10 cents at 4.57 ½.
U.S. corn is in a different position than soybeans, as export demand has remained strong for months. The U.S. is expected to stay competitive in the global market, while the potential for reduced U.S. corn acreage continues to provide underlying support.
CONAB released updated data yesterday showing Brazil’s corn production estimate at 5 million metric tons above the current USDA projection.
The heaviest rainfall over the next week is expected across Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, while most other growing areas are forecast to receive only light precipitation. Meanwhile, the percentage of the U.S. corn crop area experiencing drought conditions increased 1% this week to 26%, slightly above last year’s level of 22% at this time.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning as President Trump departs the Beijing summit, with optimism fading over the potential for additional Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. The entire soy complex is under pressure at midday, with July soybeans down 15 ¾ cents at 11.77.
Comments from President Trump continue to suggest that China will purchase “double-digit billions of dollars” worth of U.S. soybeans. However, the lack of clarity on whether those purchases refer to prior commitments made last year or represent new agreements from the recent meetings has kept pressure on the market.
China reportedly purchased a cargo of Brazilian soybeans yesterday, adding to market concerns after no major U.S. soybean purchases were announced before or during the summit. Traders view the lack of buying activity as a departure from China’s typical pattern during high-level trade meetings.
CONAB yesterday estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 180.13 million metric tons, up from 179.15 million last month and essentially in line with the USDA estimate of 180 million metric tons.
The percentage of U.S. soybean acreage affected by drought conditions increased 1% this week to 28%, compared to 17% at the same time last year. However, upcoming rainfall is expected to provide beneficial coverage across much of the Midwest and Plains.

Wheat is sharply lower at midday trade, with broad pressure across the complex. July Chicago wheat is down 23 ¼ cents at 6.34 ¾, while July Kansas City wheat is 20 cents lower at 6.85.
The Kansas wheat crop tour concluded yesterday with a final yield estimate of 38.9 bushels per acre, slightly above the USDA’s estimate earlier this week of 37 BPA, but still well below the five-year average of 45.5 BPA.
During the Kansas crop tour, 394 fields were sampled, with the state’s total wheat production estimated at a three-year low of 218 million bushels. That compares to 346.8 million bushels last year but is slightly above the USDA’s estimate earlier this week of 214.6 million bushels for Kansas.
The percentage of winter wheat acreage impacted by drought conditions increased 1% this week to 71%, compared to just 23% at the same time last year.
CONAB estimated Brazil’s wheat production at 6.4 million metric tons, down from 6.62 million last month and below the USDA’s estimate earlier this week of 7.87 million metric tons.

Lauren VandenLangenberg