TFM Morning Update 05-21-2026

CORN

Corn futures are slightly lower this morning as the market struggles to find fresh bullish news to justify a continuation of the recent rally. July corn is down 1-1/4 cents at $4.64-1/4, while December futures are 2 cents lower at $4.87-1/2.
Recent rains have improved soil moisture across the Midwest, supporting early crop germination. Additionally, warmer-than-normal temperatures expected across the northern Midwest next week should help accelerate early crop growth.
Globally, climate risks to grain production remain elevated as an El Niño event is becoming increasingly likely to develop by mid-2026, according to BMI.

Soybean futures continue to trade slightly lower as the market consolidates following recent price volatility. July soybeans are down 1-1/4 cents at $11.98-1/2, while November futures are 2-3/4 cents lower at $11.90-3/4.
In China, soybean imports from the U.S. in April more than doubled from a year earlier as cargoes purchased after Beijing resumed buying late last year continued arriving at Chinese ports. China remains the world’s largest soybean importer.
Brazil’s soybean production is projected to reach 215 mmt within the next five years as acreage expansion and improving yields continue driving growth. Rising domestic biofuel demand is also expected to support annual production growth of roughly 3% through 2031.

The wheat complex is lower this morning. Looking at July contracts, Chicago wheat is down 5-3/4 cents at $6.54-3/4, Kansas City is 7-1/4 cents lower at $6.91-1/2, and Minneapolis spring wheat is down 4-1/2 cents at $6.90.
Traders continue to monitor the potential for additional rain across the drought-stricken U.S. Plains wheat belt, though months of persistent dryness have already left many wheat fields with wide soil cracks and stunted crop development.
China agreed to reduce tariffs on agricultural products as part of the latest trade agreement, though wheat appears less likely to benefit than corn or soybeans. U.S. wheat remains relatively uncompetitive on the global market, leaving uncertainty regarding how much export demand could ultimately materialize from the deal.

Matthew Lucas