TFM Morning Update 05-28-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning as higher crude oil supports the grains, and technical support likely provides a bounce. July is up 5 cents to $4.57-1/2 while December is up 5-1/4 cents to $4.82-3/4.
Overall, corn has trended lower over the past month due to a quick planting pace in the US and large global stocks. However, weather models have turned dry for the next few weeks in the I-states, which shouldn’t do damage on its own, but could lead to further dry weather this growing season.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production lower than the previous week at 1.108 million barrels per day, while the average stockpile estimate of 24.806m bbl would compare to 24.875m a week ago.

Soybean futures are higher to start the day and are likely closely linked to the higher crude oil sparked by increased tension with Iran. July soybeans are up 10 cents to $11.95-1/4 while November is up 9 cents to $11.90-1/2. July soybean meal is up $2.10 to $332.70 and July bean oil is up 0.64 cents to 75.88 cents.
Last night, the US reportedly shot down Iranian drones over the Strait of Hormuz and struck a military site in Bandar Abbas, a key port city. In retaliation, Iran attacked a US airbase. The ceasefire is still technically in place but appears shaky, and this has caused traders to buy crude oil which supports soybeans.
Brazil has now replaced Argentina as the world’s leading export of soybean meal. Brazil has shipped 7.7 mmt during the first 4 months of the year, while Argentina has shipped 7.5. Argentina’s growth has been a bit stagnant, which has allowed Brazil to catch up.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with July Chicago up 4 cents to $6.26-1/2, KC wheat down 1-1/4 cents to $6.68-1/4, and Minn wheat unchanged at $6.80-3/4. Wheat has sold off sharply recently and is at technical support.
SovEcon is now forecasting a smaller total Russian grain crop for 26/27, but wheat production is expected to rise by 0.7% to 90.3 mmt. The barley and corn crops are expected to fall significantly.
In India, wheat output is expected to increase for the 25/26 season. Wheat production is estimated to rise by 2.3% to a record 120.66 million tons, and other food grains like rice and corn are expected to hit record production as well.

Amanda Brill