CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• For the second consecutive session, corn futures failed to hold early gains as traders squared positions ahead of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report. Selling pressure has slowed following the recent sharp decline, with July corn slipping a ½ cent to 419, while December corn gained 1 ¼ cents to 446 ¾ but finished 5 cents of the high for the session.
• Attention now turns to Thursday’s June WASDE report. Historically, June reports tend to feature only modest balance sheet adjustments, with traders expecting USDA to make minor revisions rather than major changes. The more volatile June report will likely be the Planted Acres and Grain Stocks report at the end of the month.
• Weather continues to be a bearish influence, with forecasts calling for widespread rainfall and generally favorable growing conditions across much of the Corn Belt through next week. The current outlook remains supportive of strong yield potential.
• USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday morning.  Expectations are for corn sales to range from 700,000 to 1.6 MMt for old crop corn and 200,000-500,000 for new crop.  The market will be shifting the focus to new crop sales to see if the book of sales is being built for the 2026-27 marketing year.
• Weekly ethanol production remained steady at 326 million gallons last week.  This was below market expectations and down 1% from last year. A total of 109 mb of corn was used last week in ethanol productions, slightly below the pace to reach the USDA target. Some analysts believe USDA could reduce corn-for-ethanol demand by 25 million bushels in Thursday’s report.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher, finally breaking an 8-day long losing streak as funds bought back a portion of their sold contracts ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. July soybeans gained 9-1/4 cents to $11.23 while November gained 6-1/2 cents to $11.38-1/2 which was not enough to reach above its 100-day moving average of $11.43. July soybean meal gained $0.80 to $301.90 and July soybean oil gained 0.42 cents to 75.33 cents.
• While some of today’s action was likely due to fund positioning ahead of tomorrow’s report, higher crude oil likely provided a boost as well. Crude oil moved higher following President Trump’s comments that the U.S. would strike Iran hard today after Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter yesterday. Crude oil is up $2.03 to $90.27 in July.
• Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see the average soybean yield at 52.9 bpa which would compare to 53.0 bpa in May. 25/26 ending stocks are seen relatively unchanged, and 26/27 ending stocks are seen at 310 mb. World ending stocks are not expected to be changed significantly, and there are no major expected changes for this report.
• Estimates for tomorrow’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 150,000 and 400,000 tons for 25/26 and between 100,000 and 350,000 for 26/26. This would compare to last week’s 276,852 tons for 25/26 and 243,000 tons for 26/27.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat finished the session mixed, but mostly higher across all three classes. The complex remains in oversold territory, but is starting to regain some upward technical momentum. MATIF wheat has also stopped the bleeding for the time being, which is helping to support US prices. In the July contract, Chicago gained 2-1/4 cents to 587-1/2, Kansas City was down 1/4 cent at 630-1/2, and MIAX rose 1/2 cent to 618.
• Tomorrow will feature the monthly USDA supply and demand report, in which US 26/27 wheat production is expected to fall from last month. The average trade guess pegs all wheat production at 1.554 bb versus 1.561 in May. The winter wheat crop is expected to decline 8 mb to 1.040 bb, while spring wheat is anticipated to increase 1 mb to 302 mb. If realized, it would be the smallest winter crop since 1965.
• For tomorrow, the average pre-report estimates on carryout appear relatively neutral. US 26/27 wheat ending stocks are projected at 760 mb, down 2 mb from last month. Globally, wheat ending stocks for 25/26 are expected to rise 0.2 mmt to 279.4 mmt. Meanwhile, for 26/27, traders look for a drop of 0.2 mmt to 274.8 mmt.
• Ukraine’s farmer union reports extensive damage to grain export terminals caused by Russian attacks. Continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics could create export bottlenecks and potentially shift some demand toward other wheat-exporting nations, including the United States.
• Kazakhstan is reportedly considering new restrictions on wheat imports, primarily impacting Russian supplies. Meanwhile, Argentina faces frost risks across portions of the Pampas region, which could slow wheat planting progress and create additional uncertainty for Southern Hemisphere production prospects.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures closed lower on Wednesday, with the July contract falling 25 cents to settle at $16.41/cwt.
• Spot cheese continued to weaken on Wednesday, closing 1.75 cents lower at $1.4650/lb. Meanwhile, spot whey was unchanged on the day, holding steady at $0.6775/lb.
• Class IV milk futures closed mostly lower on Wednesday, with August falling 21 cents to settle at $17.94/cwt.
• The spot dairy markets remained under pressure, with butter falling 2.5 cents to close at $1.6500/lb. Spot powder led the declines, dropping 4.75 cents to settle at $1.85/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill