CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Heavy old-crop supply projections and a sharp decline in crude oil prices during afternoon trading pushed corn futures to new contract lows on Thursday. July corn futures dropped 7 ¼ cents to 411 ¾, and December fell 7 ¼ cents to 439 ½. Going into Friday trade, December corn is currently trading 6 ½ cents lower on the week.
• President Trump announced that planned U.S. strikes against Iran would be called off Thursday evening. The development sent crude oil prices down nearly 4% and sparked broad-based selling in the grain markets.
• USDA released the June WASDE report on Thursday morning. The USDA moved 25 mb of demand from ethanol to export demand, and increased corn imports by 3 mb. The caused a slight increase in corn carryout by 3 mb to 2.145 mb. This is the second consecutive month that old crop carryout has increased slightly.
• USDA made upward revision in South American corn production in Thursday’s report. The USDA raised Argentina production 6 MMT to 61 MMT and Brazil production up 3 MMT to 138 MMT. This puts the USDA close to current estimates regarding the South American production. This increases the current available corn supply, putting pressure on corn prices in general.
• USDA released the Weekly Export sales report on Thursday morning. Corn export sales remain strong at 1.0 MMT (39.4 mb) for old crop and 926,900 MT (36.5 mb) for new crop. This is a window the market is looking for the new crop export sales business to build before fall harvest.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower despite a very neutral WASDE report. Pressure came from soybean oil that followed crude oil lower. July soybeans lost 8 cents to $11.15 while November lost 4-1/2 cents to $11.34. July soybean meal lost $0.20 to $301.70 and July soybean oil lost 0.88 cents to 74.45 cents.
• Today’s WASDE report held very few changes. U.S. ending stocks for 25/26 were unchanged from last month at 340 mb. 26/27 ending stocks were also unchanged at 310 mb. World-ending stocks were up slightly to 124.88 mmt from 124.78 mmt in May. Brazilian soybean production was unchanged at 180.0 mmt but Argentina increased to 50.0 mmt from 48.0 mmt in May.
• Soybean prices started the day slightly higher but slipped and then fell sharply following news that President Trump called off his promised strikes tonight on Iran that he said would have been more severe. Trump also suggested that progress had been made in talks to extend the ceasefire which caused oil prices to fall but supported the equity markets.
• Today’s export sales report was slow for soybeans with an increase of 7.8 million bushels for 25/26 and 5.2 mb for 26/27. This was down 24% from last week and down 18% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were Egypt, Japan, and Taiwan. Last week’s export shipments of 15.1 mb were below the 15.8 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed mixed once again today. While the WASDE report provided modestly bullish support for wheat, the market ultimately came under pressure from weakness in corn and soybean futures. All three wheat classes finished the session well below their daily highs. In the July contract, Chicago lost 3/4 cent to 586-3/4, Kansas City gained 4-1/4 cents to 634-3/4, and MIAX was up 1-1/2 cents at 619-1/2.
• The USDA reported an increase of 24.5 mb of wheat export sales for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 15.1 mb, but 5.3 mb was for the 25/26 marketing year. This brought total 25/26 exports to 860 mb, down 50 mb from the USDA’s estimate. For 26/27 wheat export commitments have reached 168.7 mb, down 22% from last year.
• On today’s WASDE report, the USDA pegged US 26/27 all wheat production at 1.543 bb, versus trade expectations for 1.554 bb and compared with 1.561 bb last month. Winter wheat production was down 18 mb to 1.030 bb. In the breakdown by class, HRW was down 18 mb to 497 mb, while SRW was down 1 mb to 300 mb.
• The USDA also indicated that that U.S. 25/26 wheat carryout was unchanged from May at 935 mb, but which was below the average trade guess of 942 mb. For 26/27, carryout dropped from 762 mb last month to 744 mb – expectations were for a 2 mb cut. Globally, on 25/26 wheat ending stocks increased 0.8 mmt to 280.0 mmt, while for 26/27 they increased 0.4 mmt to 275.4 mmt.
• According to the USDA, as of June 9, an estimated 63% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, down 4% from last week. For the same time period, spring wheat area in drought decreased by 1% to 22%.
• Coceral has reduced EU and UK combined corn production by 5% due to lower acreage, however they estimated 2026 wheat production at 143.7 mmt. This is little changed from their last update but would be a 4.7% decline year over year.
• Railway operator, Rusagrotrans, is anticipating Russia’s June wheat exports will reach 1.85 mmt. This would be well below the 3.2 mmt shipped in May.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures finished with some positivity today as the July contract gained 17 cents to move to $16.58.
• Spot cheese lost a penny on a weird day with blocks up 3 cents and barrels down a nickel. Whey was up slightly.
• Class IV was a mixed bag today. June lost 26 cents, July was unchanged, and the next three months held small gains.
• Powder continues to break, falling another 3.50 cents for a total of 23 cents on the week. Butter lost a penny.

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Author

Brandon Doherty