CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures managed a slightly higher close Friday but failed to build on early-session strength as bearish fundamentals continued to weigh on the market. July corn finished 1 cent higher to 412 ¾, and December corn gained ¾ cent to 440 ¼. For the week, July corn lost 4 ¾ cents and December fell 5 ¾ cents.
• Ongoing speculation surrounding a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran pushed crude oil to its lowest level since mid-April. Lower energy prices have reduced inflation concerns and weakened support for the broader commodity sector, contributing to continued pressure across grain markets.
• USDA’s June WASDE report reinforced the outlook for abundant global corn supplies, including larger South American production estimates. With sizable crops available from both Brazil and Argentina alongside remaining U.S. inventories, export competition remains intense and continues to cap upside price potential.
• Recent rainfall has provided good coverage across much of the Corn Belt, and forecasts continue to show generally favorable growing conditions. With the crop off to a strong start and few weather concerns currently threatening production, weather remains a bearish influence on prices.
• With the June WASDE report now behind the market, traders are turning their attention to weather developments, options expiration, July first notice day, and the highly anticipated USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports scheduled for the end of the month.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans finished Friday’s session narrowly lower across the board after trading minimally higher earlier in the day, resulting in a quiet end to the week. July soybeans ended 1-3/4 cents lower to close at 1113-1/4 while August beans ended 1-3/4 cents lower to close at 1118-3/4. July soybean meal lost $0.60 to $301.10 and July soybean oil dropped 0.17 cents to close at 74.28 cents.
• While Thursday’s WASDE report has had a limited impact on price action, it confirmed burdensome global soybean supplies. Brazil’s record crop was maintained at 180 MMT, and Argentina’s production estimate was raised by 2 MMT to 50 MMT, adding to the bearish supply outlook.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left its Argentine soybean production estimate unchanged at 50.1 MMT, close to the USDA’s updated forecast of 50 MMT. Argentina’s soybean harvest is reportedly 95% complete, providing further confidence in the country’s strong production outlook.
• Weather premium remains largely absent from the soybean market as drought conditions continue to improve. U.S. soybean acres under drought declined 3% this week to 25%, compared to 13% at this time last year. Forecasts also call for widespread rainfall across portions of the Midwest in the coming week, further easing concerns about crop stress.
• Commodity markets remained under pressure as optimism grew that a U.S.-Iran agreement could be finalized in the coming days. Reports indicate the proposed framework includes a 60-day negotiation period, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential release of frozen Iranian assets. Expectations that the deal could restore energy flows through the region continued to weigh on crude oil prices and soybean oil, adding bearish pressure across the grain markets.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures finished lower across all three classes Friday following a two-sided session. Weakness in European MATIF wheat futures and declining energy prices weighed on the market. Reports suggesting Iran is nearing a potential agreement with the U.S. pressured crude oil values, adding broader pressure to grain markets. In the July contract, Chicago lost 2-1/4 cents to 584-1/2, Kansas City was down 1/4 cent at 634-1/2, and MIAX fell 1-1/4 cents to 618-1/4.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting is now 44% complete, after having advanced 12% over the past week. The planted area forecast was held steady at 6.5 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last year.
• The Rosario Board of Trade is forecasting Argentina’s 26/27 wheat production at 20 mmt, versus their previous estimate ranging between 18-19 mmt. Between the government cutting wheat export taxes and improved price outlook, planted area is expected to increase slightly. Additionally, urea prices are said to have fallen about $200 to around $800/mt, which should promote higher usage leading to better yields.
• Despite the threat posed by El Nino, Western Australia has received recent beneficial rains. According to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) crops are currently in good condition. Nevertheless, much of the wheat acreage has been shifted to canola. Therefore, GIWA reduced their estimate of wheat sowing from 3.75 million hectares to 3.68 million.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures finished slightly lower to close out the week. June futures are now below the $16 level while July futures were unchanged at $16.58.
• Spot cheese improved ever so slightly, gaining just 0.125 cents to close at $1.45375/lb. Whey was unchanged from the day prior at $0.68/lb.
• Class IV was mostly higher with August futures improving 22 cents to $18.22 while September futures climbed 28 cents to close at $18.15.
• Spot butter was 2.75 cents higher today to close at $1.6675/lb. Powder continues to drop, losing 3 cents today to go home at $1.7850/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg