CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures closed higher to end Monday after trading lower at the Sunday night market open. A bounce from severely oversold conditions as well as more moisture forecast for some already soaked portions of the Corn Belt helped provide support today. July corn added 2-3/4 cents to close at 415-1/2 while December futures added 1-1/4 cents to close at 441-1/2.
• Corn remains under pressure from favorable crop conditions and heavy fund liquidation, but excessive moisture in parts of the eastern Corn Belt is emerging as a weather risk worth monitoring as the growing season progresses.
• CFTC data released Friday afternoon showed the funds as net short the corn market just over 5,000 contracts as of Tuesday, June 9; this comes after the funds were nearly 350,000 contracts long corn futures and options as of early May.
• Soil moisture levels remain saturated across portions of the Corn Belt from Missouri through Ohio, with additional rainfall forecast this week. While moisture has generally benefited crop development, traders will be closely monitoring rainfall totals in these already saturated areas, where flooding, ponding, and crop stress could emerge if rains become excessive.
• Following widespread rainfall across much of the Midwest last week, analysts expect USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report to show a slight improvement in corn conditions. Trade estimates call for the U.S. corn crop to be rated 68% good-to-excellent, up from 67% the previous week.
• USDA reported weekly corn export inspections of 64 million bushels, slightly below trade expectations but still above the 60 million bushels per week needed to reach USDA’s recently increased export forecast. Mexico and Japan were the leading buyers, accounting for a combined 26 million bushels of inspected exports.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher, climbing back from a lower open that saw prices fall to their lowest levels since the March lows. July soybeans gained 5-3/4 cents to $11.19-1/4 while November gained 2-3/4 cents to $11.34-3/4. July soybean meal gained $0.70 to $302 and July soybean oil gained 0.09 cents to 74.37 cents despite a drop in crude oil of $4.04 to $80.83.
• Overnight, it was announced that a peace agreement had been reached between the US and Iran that ended military operations, opened the Strait of Hormuz, committed Iran to not develop or acquire nuclear weapons, and many other things. This deal has not yet been signed but it was bullish for the equity markets and bearish for crude oil which initially brought all grain prices lower, but they recovered into the close.
• Later today, the Crop Progress report will be released by the USDA, and soybean ratings are expected to rise to 66% good to excellent from 65% a week ago as a result of widespread rains over much of the Midwest last week and warmer temperatures. It is expected that 96% of the crop is planted.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as major sellers across the ag complex and sold 65,294 contracts of soybeans as of June 9 which reduced their net long position to 90,756 contracts, but that number is likely much lower now. They sold 24,997 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 131,436 contracts and sold 74,468 contracts of meal leaving them long 52,602 contracts.
• NOPA soybean crush for the month of May saw crush fall to 208.79 million bushels which was below most estimates and was down from the 211.86 mb in April. This was up 8.3% from crush of May 2025, however.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite initial weakness, lower crude oil prices, and an announced peace agreement between the US and Iran, wheat managed to rebound in the winter classes. Spring wheat did post slight losses, perhaps due to rains going through the Canadian prairies and northern US plains. In the July contract, Chicago gained 5-1/4 cents to 589-3/4, Kansas City climbed 5-1/2 cents to 640, and MIAX lost 2-1/4 cents to 616.
• Weekly wheat export inspections came in at 12.3 mb, which brings total 26/27 inspections to 20.4 mb, down 6% from last year. However, inspections are currently running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 26/27 exports are forecasted at 775 mb, down 15% from the year prior.
• According to Friday’s Commitments of Traders report, managed funds sold a combined 48,000 wheat contracts across the three classes in the week ended Tuesday, June 9. This brings their combined net short position to about 74,000 contracts. Most of the selling was in winter wheat, with over 21,500 contracts sold in Chicago, and just over 18,000 sold in Kansas City.
• The Ukrainian agriculture ministry has stated that their nation’s exports of grains and legumes is down 12% year over year, at 34.9 mmt – the season began on July 1, 2025. In specific, wheat accounts for 13.1 mmt of that total, representing a 15% year-on-year decline.
• Iraq’s wheat procurement season, which runs between April and mid-July, is said to have resulted in 3.194 mmt of domestic wheat purchases so far. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to reach 5 mmt. Iraq is seeking increased food security by bolstering domestic wheat production and reducing reliance on imports.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV futures fell heavily with July down 58 cents and August down 54 cents to $18.64 and $17.68, respectively.
• Spot butter fell 4.25 cents and powder fell another 4 cents today to pressure Class IV futures.
• Class III futures were in the red to start the week as the second month July contract gave back 15 cents to move to $16.43.
• Spot cheese fell 0.6250 cents to start the week, settling at $1.4475/lb. Whey was up three-quarters of a cent to move to $0.6875/lb.

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill