CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling pressure in old crop corn contract pressured the corn market lower on the session. The combination of weak export shipments, first notice day on the July contract and July options expiration limited upside potential. July corn lost 6 cents to 411 ½, and December fell 4 ½ cents to 439 ½.
• USDA released weekly corn export inspections on Monday morning. For the week ending June 18, exporters shipped 1.454 MMT (57.25 mb) for corn. This was at the bottom end of expectations. Total inspections are running 25% above last year, but the gap has been slowly narrowing.
• First notice day for July contract is set for June 30. This window can bring pressure into the corn market and holders of the July contract need to price old crop bushels. In addition, July options expire on June 26, and that can bring extra volatility into the corn market.
• USDA will release the latest crop condition report on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for conditions to remain steady or tick up slightly from last week’s 68% G/E rating.
• The corn market will likely be shifting focus to the June 30 Planted Acres and Grain Stocks report. Historically, this report has the potential to be one of the more volatile reports of the marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower and were bear spread with larger losses in the front months. Prices began the day higher and were up overnight but faded into the close. July soybeans lost 7 cents to $11.15-3/4 while November lost 1-1/4 cents to $11.41-1/2. July soybean meal lost $1.50 to $299.80 and July soybean oil gained 1.46 cents to 75.15 cents despite losses in crude oil of $2.00 a barrel.
• Today’s export inspections report ran below the low end of analyst estimates for soybeans at just 8.9 million bushels for the week ending June 18. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 1.354 bb, which is down 19% from last year. On Thursday last week however, there was a flash sale of soybeans to China which sparked some encouragement.
• Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and there are very few changes expected across the board for grains. Soybean good to excellent ratings are expected to remain unchanged from last week at 66%. Weather has been very good in the I-states but potentially slightly too wet in some areas.
• Chinese imports of soybeans for the month of May rose by 1.8%, but Brazilian shipments fell in that timeframe by 17.7%. This was offset by an increase of purchases by China from the US that was 1.8% higher than last year at this time. In May, China committed to purchasing 25 mmt of soybeans from the US this season.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across all three classes, pressured by lower energies, lower corn and soybean futures, and a rising US Dollar Index. The lower trade also comes despite sharply higher MATIF futures as western Europe goes through a heat wave. In the July contract, Chicago lost 8-1/4 cents to 597-1/2, and Kansas City was down 10-1/2 cents at 633-1/2.
• Weekly wheat inspections came in at 14.4 mb, bringing total 26/27 inspections to 36 mb, up 15% from last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 26/27 exports are forecasted at 775 mb, down 15% from the year prior.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat planting in Argentina is now 58% complete. This is well above the average pace of 42% for this time of year. This is despite wet weather challenges that have slowed soybean harvest and wheat sowing.
• IKAR has reported that Russian wheat export values declined $1 last week to $233/mt. Additionally, IKAR is estimating that Russia will export 2.5 mmt of wheat in June, compared with 1.4 mmt in June of last year.
• Data from FranceAgriMer indicates that the French soft wheat crop ratings declined 1% from last week to 76% good or very good. While this remains above the 68% rating from a year ago, current heat and dryness have raised concerns about future reductions to crop conditions.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Most Class III contracts fell another double digits lower to start the week as the US cheese price spirals even lower.
• The cheddar block market lost 6c and closed at $1.39/lb, now breaking through the $1.40/lb barrier. This is it’s lowest close since February.
• Class IV was hampered by a 2.50c lower close for both spot butter and powder. There was strong volume traded in these markets today.
• This afternoon’s milk production report had a bearish tone once again, with another 10,000 dairy cows added to the herd through May.
• Total milk production in May was up 2.30% from last year.

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Author

John Heinberg