TFM Morning Update 06-24-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning but remain near recent lows as funds likely continue selling contracts. July corn is up 2 cents to $4.12 while December is up 2-1/2 cents to $4.39-3/4.
Yesterday, NOAA updated the 6-10 day forecast which showed way above average temperatures for the eastern half of the US and well below normal precipitation in many southern states. The 8-14 day forecast shows a similar pattern but less intense. Some crop areas may need to dry out, but the heat could be an issue.
Estimates for the weekly ethanol production in the EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.1m b/d while the average stockpile estimate is at 24.64m bbl which would compare to 24.474m a week ago.

Soybean futures are trading higher with the July contract up 2-3/4 cents to $11.19-3/4 and November up 3 cents to $11.44-3/4. July soybean meal is up $3.40 to $306.30 and July soybean oil is down 0.55 cents to 70.04 cents.
In Brazil, analysts are beginning to believe that the cost of phosphate will not fall by the time next season’s soybean crop will be planted which would lead to a loss in yields. If traffic in the Strait of Hormuz went back to normal today, it would take 6-18 months before supply lines got back to normal.
While China wasn’t a large buyer of soybeans last week, they were a buyer, and are starting to chip away at their commitment to buy 25 mmt this season. Brazilian and US soybeans are in direct competition right now.

All three wheat classes are higher this morning with July Chicago wheat up 3-1/2 cents to $5.90-1/4, KC wheat up 4-1/4 cents to $6.22-1/2, and Minn wheat up 2-1/2 cents to $5.90-1/2.
In Russia, SovEcon has lowered its estimates for the 26/27 wheat crop to 88.9 mmt which is a 1.6% decline from its previous estimate. This is due to a decline in planted wheat area.
Winter wheat crop conditions are abysmal at 26% good to excellent, down another point from last week. 40% of the winter wheat is harvested which is up from 25% last week. Spring wheat conditions are better at 54% good to excellent, down 1 point from last week. 16% of the spring wheat crop is headed.

Amanda Brill