TFM Midday Update 6-26-2026

CORN

Corn is higher at midday as traders weigh the potential impact of well-above-normal temperatures across parts of the Midwest, with concerns that the heat could stress corn during the critical pollination period. July corn is up ½ cent at 4.15-1/4.
Heat and dryness across the EU continue to take a toll on the French corn crop, with crop conditions falling 8 percentage points this week to their lowest level in eight years. The French Farm Ministry warned that corn production could decline by as much as 30% this season if adverse weather persists.
The International Grains Council significantly increased its global corn production forecast yesterday, though global grain inventories are still expected to decline 3% from a year ago.
Bloomberg’s average estimate for next Tuesday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report is 5.414 billion bushels of corn on hand, up significantly from 4.643 billion bushels a year ago. Analysts also expect the USDA to estimate corn planted acreage at 95.1 million acres, down slightly from 95.3 from the USDA in March.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday, with losses seen across the entire soy complex. July soybeans are 3-1/2 cents lower at 11.24-1/4.
Reports continue to indicate that Argentine oilseed workers could go on strike next week, providing underlying support to the soy product markets amid concerns over potential export disruptions.
Argentina’s soybean harvest is now 98% complete. Meanwhile, Brazil’s urea imports from January through May were the lowest in a decade, confirming Rabobank’s report of an 8.2% year-over-year decline in fertilizer sales to Brazilian farmers.
U.S. soybeans under drought declined 1 percentage point this week to 22%, though that remains well above the 12% reported a year ago. Forecasts call for rainfall to be largely confined to the eastern Corn Belt through early next week, while drier conditions are expected to expand across the Plains and the northern half of the Midwest.

Wheat is trading lower at midday as pressure continues from declining Russian wheat prices and improving U.S. growing conditions, with the share of the U.S. wheat crop under drought dropping 6% this week. July Chicago wheat is 12-1/2 cents lower at 5.78-1/2, and July Kansas City wheat is 8-3/4 cents lower at 6.11-3/4.
Globally, French soft wheat crop conditions declined 2 percentage points this week, while durum wheat conditions fell 6 percentage points. Meanwhile, concerns are growing that cold temperatures expected in Argentina during early July could slow wheat planting, which is currently 66% complete.
Bloomberg’s average estimate for next Tuesday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report is 931 million bushels of wheat, up from 855 million bushels a year ago. Analysts expect all wheat planted acreage to remain unchanged from the USDA’s March estimate at 43.8 million acres, while spring wheat acreage is projected to increase slightly to 9.5 million acres from 9.4 million in March.

Lauren VandenLangenberg