CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures came under pressure to start the week as updated weather forecasts moderated the projected heat wave after the first of July, while First Notice Day also contributed to additional selling in the corn market. July corn lost 10 ¾ cents closing at 402, while December lost 11 ½ to 430. July corn traded to a new contract low and broke the 400 barrier with a low of 398 ½ during the session.
• The USDA Weekly Export Inspections report showed good movement of corn at 1.786 MMT (70.3 mb). Corn exports will need to remain strong to ship the large amount of export sales on the books with only 9 weeks left in the marketing year.
• Extended forecasts are noting a shift in the current “Heat Dome” building over the Corn Belt this week. Temperatures are forecasted to stay slightly above average, but rainfall chances improve to above average for the Corn Belt. A warm and wet forecast overall will support the developing corn crop.
• Managed Money has been adding to the current short position in the corn market. On Friday’s Commitment of Traders report, managed funds were short nearly 70,000 contracts of corn as of June 23. Funds added 23,200 net short contracts over the week.
• USDA will release the June Planted Acres and Grain stocks report on Tuesday. Expectations are for planted corn acres to be 94.992 million acres, down slightly from the March intentions report and nearly 2.8 million acres below last year. Grain stocks estimates are expected to be 5.408 billion bushels of corn, up 17% year-over-year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower as funds re-positioned ahead of tomorrow’s Stocks and Acreage report. Tomorrow is also first notice day for July grains. July soybeans lost 17-1/2 cents to $11.08-3/4 while November lost 17-1/4 cents to $11.39. July soybean meal lost $2.30 to $304.70 and July soybean oil lost 2.23 cents to 69.07 cents.
• Tomorrow, the USDA will release its Grain Stocks and planted acreage report, and today’s price movement was likely in anticipation of that. Analysts expect that more soybean acres will be planted- 85.25 million acres- which would be up from the previous estimate in March of 84.7 million acres.
• Today’s export inspections report saw soybeans come within analyst estimates at 15.4 million bushels for the week ending June 25. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 1/371 bb, which is down 19% from the previous year. This morning, private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 26/27 marketing year.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans as of June 28. They sold 16,139 contracts which reduced their net long position to 36,679 contracts. They sold 19,325 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 103,589 contracts and sold 8,851 contracts of soybean meal leaving them long 8,601 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures ended the session lower across all three classes as traders positioned ahead of Tuesday’s USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. End-of-month positioning, First Notice Day for July grain futures, lower corn and soybean prices, and continued weak Chinese demand all contributed to the pressure. In the September contracts, Chicago wheat fell 10 cents to $5.79-3/4, Kansas City declined 4-3/4 cents to $6.14-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 4-1/2 cents to $6.00-3/4.
• Weekly wheat export inspections came in at 13.2 mb, which brings total 26/27 inspections to 49 mb, up 1% from last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 26/27 exports are forecasted at 775 mb, down 15% from the year prior.
• Tomorrow morning traders will receive the USDA’s quarterly stocks and acreage reports. The average pre-report estimate for wheat stocks as of June 1 is 935 mb. This compares with 1.3 bb on March 1, and is above the 855 mb figure from June 1, 2025.
• As for acreage, the average pre-report estimate calls for all wheat acres at 43.8 million, unchanged from March. This would be down 1.5 ma from last year, however. In the breakdown by class, winter wheat is anticipated at 32.4 ma and spring wheat at 9.4 ma, both unchanged from March, but down 0.8 ma and 0.6 ma respectively, when compared with last year.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values declined $2 to end last week at $231/mt. Declining world values may limit upside movement for US futures prices.
• Statistics Canada will release their crop area estimates tomorrow – the average pre-report estimate calls for all wheat acreage at 26.6 million, which would be down 0.1 ma from the March projection. For reference, this would also be below the 27.0 ma planted in 2025.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV is starting off the week on a higher note, on some follow-through support after a limit-up day on Friday. July futures were up 37 cents to $19.07.
• Spot butter was up 5 cents on the day to $1.70/lb while powder jumped 10 cents to close at $1.6975/lb.
• Class III is finding support to start the week thanks to a rally in the Class IV market. September futures were up 13 cents to $17.18.
• Spot cheese was up 0.125 cents to close at $1.45125/lb. Whey was unchanged from Friday at $0.6850/lb.

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty