TFM Midday Update 7-1-2026

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 3, in Observance of Independence Day

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday as the market continues to react to yesterday’s USDA report. September corn is up 3 cents at 4.19-3/4.
Yesterday’s USDA report reinforced the bullish outlook, with quarterly corn stocks coming in below the lowest trade estimate, signaling a tighter U.S. balance sheet than previously expected.
India’s monsoon continues to underperform, increasing stress on crops. Rainfall is running 40% below normal following the country’s driest June in 12 years.
Ethanol production rebounded to 328 million gallons, up from 320 million the previous week and up 3.8% from the YA. Production was above expectations.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday, with yesterday’s USDA report offering few surprises as both quarterly stocks and acreage came in largely in line with trade expectations. August soybeans are up 3-3/4 cents at 11.28. Soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher at midday, while soybean oil is posting modest losses.
U.S. weather forecasts continue to favor the northern Midwest with the best chances for precipitation through the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook calls for near-normal precipitation across much of the Midwest, while above-normal temperatures are expected, with the hottest conditions centered over the northern Plains.
USDA’s May soybean crush report will be released this afternoon, with analysts expecting 215.1 million bushels. If realized, it would set a new record for the month of May, although it would be down from April’s 218.4 million bushels.

Wheat is trading sharply higher at midday, supported by yesterday’s USDA report, which delivered the most bullish data across the grain markets. September Chicago wheat is up 11 cents at 6.00-1/4 while September Kansas City wheat is up 9-1/4 cents at 6.34-1/2.
Yesterday’s USDA report provided a bullish surprise for the wheat market, with all wheat acreage declining more than expected and coming in below the lowest pre-report estimate. Harvested acres were down 5.1 million from the previous season, while quarterly wheat stocks also fell below the average trade estimate. New crop wheat seedings were more than 1 million acres below the March estimate, adding to expectations for a significant decline in 2026/27 ending stocks compared to the 2025/26 marketing year.
Statistics Canada reported all wheat acreage at more than 1.2 million acres below trade estimates, down 5.3% from the March estimate and 5.9% from last year. Winter wheat acreage also declined more than 11% year over year, adding further support to the bullish outlook for wheat.

Lauren VandenLangenberg