TFM Midday Update 07-06-2026

CORN

Corn futures are moving double digits higher to start the first full week of July as the market adds back in some weather premium. September CBOT corn futures are currently 15 higher at 438, while new crop December futures are 16-1/2 higher at 458.
Parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota have received more than 6 inches of rain over the past five days, causing flash flooding and localized crop damage. Elsewhere, a warm and drier forecast during the critical pollination period has traders concerned national corn yield estimates could trend lower in the months ahead.
The July WASDE will be released Friday and is typically the first report where USDA begins adjusting corn and soybean yield estimates. Traders will also be watching demand closely, with corn exports continuing to outperform seasonal expectations.

Soybean futures are starting the week sharply higher, November futures are 45 cents higher at 1193 while March of 2027 futures are 42 higher at 1210.
The Climate Prediction Center’s updated outlook calls for a warmer and drier July across much of the Midwest, prompting traders to add weather risk back into the market after soybean futures fell to nearly their lowest levels of 2026 last week.
Traders remain optimistic Chinese soybean buying will continue after old-crop commitments reached the first-phase trade agreement target last week. Some analysts believe USDA could increase soybean export projections by 10 million bushels in Friday’s WASDE report if the recent demand pace continues.

Wheat futures are the lagger of the grain market to start the week but still holding gains. September CBOT wheat futures are 11 higher at 611. September KCBOT wheat futures are 6 higher at 644-1/2, while September Spring wheat is 24-3/4 higher at 622.
Bangladesh agreed to purchase 221,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat as part of a trade agreement announced Thursday, even though U.S. wheat was not the lowest-priced origin.
Traders will watch for this afternoon’s USDA crop progress report release for an indication of spring wheat condition as well as winter wheat harvest progress.

Keegan Madigan