TFM Midday Update 07-08-2026

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday despite strength in crude oil, with September corn down 6-3/4 cents at 4.37 and December corn is down 5-3/4 cents at 4.58-1/2.
Warmer, drier weather forecast for the western Corn Belt as pollination expands this week is adding some weather premium back into the grain markets.
Overnight, President Trump said the deal with Iran was off and strikes are likely to resume after Iran shot at tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which is giving crude a $4 a barrel boost this morning.
Ethanol production slipped to 321 million gallons down from 329 million the previous week while still up nearly 1% from the yearly average.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday, finding support from strong morning export sales. August soybeans are up 3-1/4 cents at 11.97 and September soybeans are up 2 cents at 11.89.
USDA confirms the sale of 472,000 tons of US soybeans for delivery to China. 136,000 tons for 2025/26 and 336,000 tons for 2026/27.
Friday’s July Supply and Demand Report is not expected to include any yield adjustments this early in the growing season. However, new-crop ending stocks are projected to increase from 310 million bushels in June to 332 million bushels in the July report.
Weather remains a market focus, with scattered showers expected across the central Plains and heavier rainfall in the lower Midwest through the weekend. Localized flooding may raise crop concerns, while a warmer, drier pattern is expected to develop across the western Belt and central Midwest by midweek.

Wheat turned lower by midday despite early session strength and a sharp rally in crude oil, as renewed tensions in the Middle East escalated after Iran reportedly targeted tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting additional U.S. strikes and effectively ending the ceasefire.
All wheat classes are trading lower at midday, with December Chicago wheat down 5-1/4 cents at 6.28-1/2 and December Kansas City wheat down 5-1/2 cents at 6.61-1/2.
There are expectations of tightening carryout this Friday in the July USDA Supply and Demand report. US carryout is anticipated to drop to 718 million bushels, down from 744 in June, mainly due to higher acreage in the end of June report.
S. harvest is now well past the halfway mark, with favorable weather expected to support harvest progress in the days ahead.

Lauren VandenLangenberg