CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished slightly higher but well off their overnight highs as weakness in the wheat market limited buying interest. September corn gained 1-½ to $4.41, while December added 2-¼ to $4.63¼.
• Friday’s WASDE cut old-crop ending stocks by 125 million bushels and new-crop carryout by 170 million bushels, with both totals coming in below pre-report expectations. Strong export demand and steady usage continue to provide underlying support for corn futures despite generally favorable growing conditions.
• The 10-day forecast calls for above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall across much of the Corn Belt as a high-pressure ridge strengthens. Ample June moisture should limit near-term crop stress, but if the pattern persists into late July, yield concerns could begin to build.
• Monday’s USDA Crop Progress Report (released at 3:00 p.m. CDT) will provide an updated look at crop conditions before this week’s heat and dry pattern takes hold. The U.S. corn crop was rated 67% good to excellent as of July 5, unchanged from the previous week.
• Tensions remain elevated in the Middle East and Ukraine following weekend escalations, adding a risk premium to energy markets. Crude oil moved back above $75 per barrel, providing support to the broader commodity complex.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher but retreated from highs early this morning. Support came from escalations between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. August soybeans gained 5 cents to $11.96-3/4 while November gained 4 cents to $11.94-3/4. Prices were up as much as 17 cents overnight. August soybean meal lost $3.20 to $317.20 and August soybean oil gained 2.36 cents to 72.82 cents thanks to a $6.50 spike in crude oil.
• Renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil sharply higher, providing support to soybean oil. Crude gained more than $6 per barrel on reports of renewed U.S. action involving the waterway.
• Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 15.4 million bushels for the week ending July 9. This put total inspections for 25/26 at 1.407 billion bushels which is down 18% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating that exports will be down 20% from last year.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of July 7 by 37,479 contracts which increased their long position to 68,769 contracts. They sold 3,004 contracts of soybean oil leaving them long 89,228 contracts and bought 17,184 contracts of bean meal leaving them long 19,025 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed mixed after an early rally tied to Black Sea tensions and higher energy prices. Weakness in MATIF wheat, a stronger U.S. dollar, and technically overbought conditions limited upside. In the September contract, Chicago lost 5 cents to 635-1/4, Kansas City dropped 10 cents to 666-1/4, and MIAX gained 3/4 cent to 653-1/4.
• Wheat export inspections reached 13.7 mb, bringing total 26/27 inspections to 70 mb, down 17% from last year. Inspections are currently running below the USDA’s estimated pace, total exports in 26/27 are forecasted at 775 mb, down 15% from the year prior.
• APK-Inform is reported to have increased their estimate of Ukrainian 2026 wheat production. They raised their forecast by 0.7 mmt to 22.4 mmt. For reference, this remains below the USDA’s 24 mmt figure. Additionally, APK-Inform increased the nation’s total export projection of all grains by 0.3 mmt to 43.1 mmt.
• The CFTC Commitments of Traders report indicated that for the week ended July 7, managed funds bought about 6,700 contracts of Chicago wheat and about 4,800 Kansas City wheat. This reduced their net short position in Chicago to just over 62,000 contracts and increased their net long in Kansas City to just under 12,000. However, with the surge in prices at the end of last week, it is likely that they purchased additional wheat contracts after Tuesday.
• Reportedly, Ukraine struck four Russian vessels overnight with drones. This had US wheat futures trading higher early in the session. Because of recent attacks, Russia shut down the Don-Azov channel and the Kerch Strait, both key shipping routes. It is estimated that about 25% of Russia’s grain shipping goes through these areas.
• In a recent update, Coceral reduced their estimates of grain production in both the EU and UK due to the significant heatwave they experienced. While corn saw the biggest reduction (4.5 mmt), the soft wheat harvest estimate was also cut by 2.9 mmt to 140.8 mmt. This compares with a 149.8 mmt crop in 2025.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese was bid higher once again Monday, taking the block/barrel average up to $1.58/lb. This is its best close since May 12th.
• The rally in cheese has kept nearby Class III strong. The August contract closed up sharply, already over $1.00 off of last week’s low. 
• The Class IV trade was more defensive today, with butter futures red across the board and powder futures mixed.
• A weather-led rally in the grain market may be helping to prop up dairy prices right now as feed gets a bit more expensive.
• A quiet week ahead awaits the dairy trade with no Global Dairy Trade auctions or major reports. Expect spot market trade to dictate price action.

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Author

Brandon Doherty