TFM Morning Update 07-15-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher to start the day as the forecast remains dry and warm for the upcoming week. September corn is up 5 cents to $4.43-1/2 while December is up 5 cents to $4.65-1/2.
Estimates for the weekly EIA ethanol report see production higher than last week at 1.1 million barrels per day while stockpiles are estimated at 23.85m bbl which would compare to 23.928m a week ago.
Yesterday, CONAB updated its estimates for corn production and increased the number to 141.7 mmt which is up from last week and would compare to 141.2 mmt a year ago. Both planted acreage and yield were bumped higher.

Soybean futures are higher to start the day with August soybeans up 2-1/4 cents to $11.95 and November soybeans up 3 cents to $11.94. Both are at chart resistance. August soybean meal is up $0.20 to $315.20 while bean oil is up 0.11 cents to 72.51 cents.
The hot and dry 1-2 week forecast has offered support to grains recently, but expected temperatures are expected to drop this weekend. At this point, markets will be hyper focused on the amount of rain in upcoming forecasts.
CONAB updated Brazilian soybean production, increasing it to 180.57 mmt which would be up from 180.25 last month and 171.48 mmt last year. Planted acreage and yield were increased.

All three wheat classes are sharply higher due to the closure of a major Strait in Russia. September Chicago wheat is up 19 cents to $6.64, KC is up 22-1/2 cents to $7.00-1/2, and Minn wheat is up 17-3/4 cents to $6.75-3/4.
Russia has closed the Kerch Strait as a result of numerous Ukrainian attacks, and a significant amount of wheat exports pass through this strait. The reduction in Russian exports have caused prices to rally.
Analysts have cut Russia’s July wheat export forecast by 20% from the previous estimate to under 2 mmt. Harvest is running 7-14 days behind, and the vessel traffic is heavily slowing exports.

Amanda Brill