TFM Morning Update 07-16-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading modestly higher this morning as new-crop contracts continue to test key technical resistance levels. September corn is up 1-1/4 cents at $4.48-3/4, while December futures are 1 cent higher at $4.70-1/2.
USDA will release its weekly Export Sales report later this morning. Traders expect old-crop corn sales for the week ending July 9 to range from 0.5 to 1.0 million metric tons, while 2026/27 sales are projected between 0.3 and 1.1 million metric tons.
Weekly ethanol production fell to a 10-week low of 306 million gallons, coming in below market expectations and 4% below the same week last year. An estimated 102 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production, slightly below the pace needed to meet USDA’s marketing-year forecast.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning, with new-crop prices approaching technical resistance near the mid-May highs. August soybeans are up 3-3/4 cents at $12.06, while November futures are 3-1/4 cents higher at $12.05.
Yesterday’s NOPA Crush report showed 214.34 million bushels of soybeans were processed during June, exceeding trade expectations. That was up 2.7% from May and 15.7% above June 2025. Strong domestic crush demand continues to be a key source of support for soybean prices.
Traders continued to monitor weather across the Midwest. This week’s hot temperatures accelerated corn and soybean development, but forecasts call for cooler conditions and increased rainfall next week, easing concerns about crop stress during key stages of development.

The wheat complex is trading higher again this morning as the market continues to price in escalating tensions in the Black Sea region. Looking at September contracts, Chicago wheat is up 6 cents at $6.83-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 2-3/4 cents higher at $7.22-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 2-1/4 cents at $6.85-1/2.
Escalating tensions in the Black Sea continued to support wheat prices as Ukrainian forces targeted Russian vessels following strikes on more than 100 Russia-linked ships in the Sea of Azov. Russia also intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports, raising concerns about potential disruptions to a critical global grain export corridor.
Ukraine has already lost roughly one-third of its grain export capacity through Black Sea ports following intensified Russian attacks, raising concerns that further disruptions could tighten global grain supplies and provide continued support to wheat prices.

Matthew Lucas