TFM Morning Update 07-28-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading modestly higher this morning as the market attempts to recover from yesterday’s sharp losses. September corn is up 1/2 cent at $4.52-1/4, while December futures are 1/2 cent higher at $4.74-1/2.
USDA’s Crop Progress report showed 63% of the U.S. corn crop rated good-to-excellent as of Sunday, down from 67% the previous week. The larger-than-expected decline suggests recent heat and dryness have begun to impact crop conditions, providing underlying support to corn prices.
The latest NOAA 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across much of the central Corn Belt, including Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana over the next week. Meanwhile, the Dakotas and Minnesota are expected to receive generally less than one-half inch of rain, keeping those areas at greater risk of developing moisture stress.

Soybean futures are under pressure again this morning following yesterday’s sharp selloff. August soybeans are down 5 cents at $12.03-1/2, while November futures are 6-3/4 cents lower at $12.07.
USDA lowered soybean condition ratings to 63% good-to-excellent, down from 66% the previous week. Ratings for both corn and soybeans came in below the average trade estimate, indicating recent weather has had a greater impact on crop conditions than analysts anticipated.
Yesterday, private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year, along with an additional 126,000 metric tons sold to unknown destinations. While export demand has remained encouraging, the soybean market is placing greater emphasis on improving weather forecasts, which have weighed more heavily on prices.

The wheat complex is under pressure again this morning as selling continues across the grain markets. Looking at September contracts, Chicago wheat is down 8 cents at $6.52, Kansas City wheat is 4 cents lower at $7.25, and Minneapolis spring wheat is down 8-1/4 cents at $6.98.
Traders remain focused on reports that Ukraine was discussing possible mechanisms to keep commercial vessels moving through its major export ports, raising hopes that Black Sea grain exports could avoid a significant disruption. However, Ukrainian officials later denied that any such agreement had been reached.
Russian wheat export prices held steady last week following their recent rally, as elevated freight costs weighed on demand. Additional pressure came from lower global wheat prices amid rumors that recent shipping restrictions in the Black Sea could be eased.

Matthew Lucas