TFM Midday Update 7-27-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading sharply lower to start the week after overnight weather models increased chances for rainfall and cooler temperatures across the Corn Belt into early August. September corn is down 10-1/4 to 454, while December is 11 lower at 476-1/2.
The shift toward a cooler and wetter forecast is pressuring prices as traders reduce weather risk premium heading into a critical period for crop development.
Sharply lower crude oil futures are weighing on the broader grain complex as the U.S. canceled planned attacks against Iran and Iranian strikes eased, raising hopes that peace talks could resume.

Soybean futures opened sharply lower Sunday night as forecasts call for increased moisture across the driest areas of the Upper Midwest over the next 10 days. November soybeans are currently down 34-3/4 cents at 1218-3/4 while March futures are down 30-1/2 cents at 1233-1/2.
July brought a surge in U.S. soybean demand, led by strong Chinese purchases. New-crop export sales have more than doubled since the start of the month, although commitments remain behind the average pace for this time of year.
The latest CFTC report showed managed money adding more than 52,000 contracts to its net-long soybean position, bringing the total to 124,900 contracts as of July 21 — the largest net-long position held by funds since early June.

Wheat futures are slightly lower to start the week following sharply lower row crop futures. CBOT September SRW wheat futures are down 6 cents at 672, September HRW wheat futures are down 6 cents at 739-1/4 while September HRS wheat futures are down 5-1/4 cents at 709.
Wheat futures fell sharply Friday on rumors that Russia and Ukraine were negotiating to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels in the Black Sea. However, little evidence of de-escalation has emerged, with strikes reported throughout the weekend, keeping geopolitical risk elevated for global wheat trade.
After a hot and dry two-week stretch across the Northern Plains, traders will be watching Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report for another decline in spring wheat condition ratings. However, last week’s spring and durum wheat tour through North Dakota found yield prospects holding relatively steady compared with last year, potentially limiting concerns over production losses.

Keegan Madigan