CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The grain complex came under pressure from weakness in energy markets, with crude oil falling more than 7% during the session. September corn closed 12-1/2 cents lower at $4.51-3/4, while December futures fell 13-1/2 cents to $4.74.
• Oil prices fell to a one-week low after the United States abruptly suspended its airstrike campaign against Iran over the weekend. The pause raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, easing concerns over potential disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The latest NOAA 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across much of the central Corn Belt, including Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana over the next week. Meanwhile, the Dakotas and Minnesota are expected to receive generally less than one-half inch of rain, with only isolated areas forecast to see up to an inch.
• Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money adding to its bullish corn position during the week ending July 21. Funds increased their net long by 49,518 contracts, driven primarily by short covering, bringing their total net long position to 92,909 contracts as of Tuesday.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower taking back nearly all of last week’s gains as a cooler, wetter weather pattern pressured prices while lower crude oil brought soybean oil lower as well. The US and Iran have ceased firing at each other while they work towards peace talks which weighed on crude oil.
• August soybeans lost 39-1/2 cents today to $12.08-1/2 while November soybeans lost 39-3/4 cents to $12.13-3/4. August soybean meal lost $10.50 to $320.80 and August soybean oil lost 2.87 cents to 71.46 cents. August crude oil is down $7.00 a barrel to $82.28.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 26/27 marketing year and a sale of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 26/27 marketing year. While the export sales have been encouraging, the market is more focused on the shift in improved weather forecasts.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of July 21. They bought 52,212 contracts of soybeans increasing their net long position to 124,900 contracts. They bought 12,319 contracts of soybean oil leaving them long 125,348 contracts and they bought 27,300 contracts of bean meal leaving them long 75,152 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat market closed with double-digit losses in all three classes. Wheat was pulled lower by a sharp decline in energy prices, a significant drop in soybean futures, a lower close for the MATIF market, and relative strength in the US Dollar Index. There may have also been some follow-through liquidation after Friday’s lower trade. In the September contract, Chicago dropped 18 cents to 660, Kansas City fell 16-1/4 cents to 729, and MIAX lost 8 cents to 762-1/2.
• Weekly wheat export inspections reached 14.5 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 93.4 mb, down 23% from last year. Wheat inspections are currently running below the USDA’s estimated pace; exports in 25/26 are estimated at 775 mb, down 15% from the year prior.
• IKAR has reduced their 2026 Russian wheat production estimate by 1.1 mmt to 90 mmt. For reference, this is still above the USDA’s 88.5 mmt forecast. Additionally, IKAR cuth their Russian wheat export estimate to 44.5 mmt, which would be down 3.7% from the 25/26 marketing year.
• According to the USDA, the production forecast for Australia’s 26/27 wheat crop has improved due to above-average rains in fall and winter. The USDA raised their harvest estimate from 29 mmt to 31 mmt. For reference, this is also above the Australian ag department’s 26.7 mmt projection from June. Nevertheless, El Nino could still threaten their crop later in 2026.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After hitting a high of year last Thursday, the block/barrel average has now closed red two days in a row, dropping 3.125c total.
• The lack of cheese follow-through is keeping Class III milk on the defensive as the $1.60/lb resistance level may hold once again.
• A stronger build in cheese inventories from May to June could stall this cheese rally. The US market is now at a premium to global prices as well.
• The Class IV trade continues to bleed lower, down double digits on Monday. A weak powder and butter market are to blame.
• Class III futures were as many as 41c lower. The July contract has a full week to trade yet in the front month before it settles next Tuesday.

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Author

Amanda Brill