TFM Midday Update 7-31-2026

CORN

Corn is lower at midday with December corn down 4-1/4 cents at 4.41-1/2.
Forecasts calling for widespread rainfall across the Midwest over the next week continue to weigh on the corn market, offsetting concerns over expanding drought. The percentage of U.S. corn under drought conditions rose 9 percentage points this week to 29%, compared to just 7% a year ago.
Ongoing drought across the EU continues to take a toll on crops. The European Commission now estimates EU corn production at 51.9 million metric tons, down sharply from last month’s forecast of 59.9 million metric tons.
Hotter temperatures are expected to move into Ukraine this weekend, but the Ukrainian Grain Association reports the crop continues to fare well and has increased its production estimate by 3.2% from last year to 32.1 million metric tons.

Soybeans are slightly higher at midday as weather concerns ease. Soybean oil and soybean meal are both trading lower at midday. September soybeans are up ½ cent at 11.72-3/4.
Significant rainfall is forecast across the central Midwest this weekend before expanding into the eastern Corn Belt and Southeast. The precipitation is expected to benefit soybean pod setting and replenish soil moisture ahead of the warmer and drier pattern forecast in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
U.S. soybeans under drought conditions increased 8 percentage points this week to 26%, up from just 5% a year ago.
SinoGrain sold approximately half of the 500,000 tons of soybeans offered in last week’s auction and has scheduled another 500,000 ton auction for next Wednesday as it works to make room for incoming U.S. soybean shipments.

Wheat is sharply lower at midday as traders head into the weekend. December Chicago wheat is down 26.6 cents at 6.54-3/4. While December Kansas City wheat is down 25-1/4 cents at 7.21-1/2.
Ukraine targeted one of Russia’s largest Lukoil refinery complexes, but the wheat market showed a muted reaction, suggesting traders have largely priced in the recent Black Sea geopolitical tensions.
The Ukrainian Grain Association raised its wheat production estimate by 5.3% to 23.7 million metric tons.
The EU Commission lowered its SRW ending stocks estimate to 12.9 million metric tons, down from 13.8 million last month, as usable production declined by 2.0 million metric tons month over month.

Lauren VandenLangenberg