CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market battled off session lows to finish with moderate gains on Thursday, as the corn market held technical support despite selling pressure from the wheat market. September corn gained 2 ¼ cents to 439, and December corn gained 2 cents to 462. Going into Friday trade, December corn futures are down 2 cents on the week.
• The USDA announced weekly export sales totals on Thursday morning. For the week ending August 6, old crop corn sales hit a market year low of 116,700 MT (4.6 mb), and new crop sales reached 1.026 MMT (40.4 mb). New crop sales were in the middle of the range of expectations. Unknown destination and Mexico were the largest buyers of new crop corn last week.
• New weather models continue to call for above-normal rainfall but have been backing off the heat that was forecast across much of the Corn Belt over the next two weeks, creating favorable conditions for grain fill. 
• The USDA will release the August WASDE report on August 12. In the next few days, the corn market will likely see some private corn yield forecasts for the 2026-27 marketing year. Early forecasts are calling for yields above USDA’s 183 bu/acre trendline estimate, reflecting generally favorable growing conditions through May, June, and July. 
• European corn prices have been on the rise due to reduced crop production because of overall hot and dry conditions. The European Union will likely have to look for increased corn imports to cover the shortfall from this year’s poor production.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher rallying off of lows this morning and once again bouncing off the 100-day moving average. September soybeans gained 3-1/2 cents to $11.60 while November gained 3 cents to $11.77-3/4. September soybean meal gained $1.40 to $311.60 and September soybean oil gained 0.02 cents to 67.74 cents.
• This morning, the UDSA reported a sale of 122,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 26/27 marketing year. This follows China booking at least 13 soybean cargoes or around 800,000 tons on Wednesday which again follows 488,000 tons on Monday. China is now likely 25% of the way to meeting their full commitment of buying 25 mmt of U.S. soybeans this marketing season.
• Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans with an increase of 1.2 million bushels for 25/26 and 33.2 mb for 26/27. This was a marketing year low and was down 89% from the previous week and down 79% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were unknown destinations, China, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 12.7 mb were below the 16.4 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.
• StoneX projected a 2026 soybean yield of 53.0 bushels per acre, matching USDA’s current estimate, with production forecast at 4.470 billion bushels. USDA will update its production estimates in the August 12 WASDE report.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted double-digit losses across the board today. A stronger U.S. dollar added pressure to the market, while reports that the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen further weighed on prices, although those reports remain unconfirmed. Additionally, reports that Ukraine is working with Romania to use some of their ports for exports may have pressured prices. In the September contract, Chicago lost 11 cents to 631-1/4, Kansas City dropped 13-3/4 cents to 699-3/4, and MIAX fell 12-1/2 cents to 671.
• The USDA reported an increase of 10.9 mb of wheat export sales for 26/27. Shipments last week reached 15.4 mb, which exceeded the 14.4 mb pace needed per week to hit their 775 mb export goal. Total 26/27 wheat export commitments now sit at 265 mb, down 30% from last year.
• According to the USDA, as of August 4, an estimated 58% of US spring wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. That is a big jump of 16% from the week before. During the same time period, winter wheat area in drought increased by 2% to 50%.
• Algeria is said to have purchased up to 720,000 mt of wheat in their tender, paying between $289-$290/mt on a CNF basis. In related news, after passing on their previous tender, Jordan issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 mt of milling wheat. The wheat can be sourced from optional origins, and the price offer deadline is August 11.
• On a bullish note, Expana has reduced their estimate of European Union soft wheat production by 1.5 mmt, to 126.8 mmt. If realized, this would also be down over 7% compared to a year ago.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• September Class III futures got near their July lows before bouncing back higher, finishing up 23 cents at $17.22.
• Blocks were up 1.50 cents to bring the block/barrel average to $1.54125/lb. Whey was up as well to remain just under $0.70/lb.
• The only Class IV mover today was October futures, which settled 4 cents higher. September settled at $17.85.
• Butter jumped an impressive 6.75 cents on 79 loads traded. Powder dulled the enthusiasm though and dropped 3.50 cents.
• Cheese production in June was up 1.1% YoY while butter jumped 8.5% in compared to the same month in 2025.

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Author

John Heinberg