CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures faded off early session highs to finish the session lower in the front end of the market to start the week. Early session strength in wheat and firm crude oil prices helped support the corn market. September corn lost ¾ cents to 438 ½, December corn slipped ¼ cent to 461 ¾.
• USDA confirmed a corn export sale on Monday morning. Unknown Destination stepped in and purchased 105,000MT (4.1 mb) of corn for the 2025/26 marketing year.
• The USDA announced weekly export inspections on Monday morning for the week ending August 6. Corn inspections totaled 68,5 mb, which was above market expectations. This brings total inspections to 3.111 BB, up 25% from last year. Spain was the largest recipient of US corn, taking nearly 21% of the week’s total.
• Crude Oil futures traded 4-5% higher during the session as caution regarding US-Iran negotiation and continued hostilities between Russia-Ukraine concern the oil market. The strong oil prices limited the downside in the corn market to start the week.
• The USDA will release the August Crop Production report on Tuesday. Expectations for corn yield is to be slightly below trend at 182.4 bu/a. This would put total production just below 16 billion bushels. In addition, the FSA will be releasing the August Crop Acreage report on Wednesday, which could provide possible acre adjustments to the Crop Production report.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher today in mostly quiet trade, but support was lent to soybean oil thanks to a jump in crude oil prices. Supporting crude oil is news that Ukraine has struck a Russian oil hub with drone attacks. In addition, it was announced that Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have signed a mutual defense contract to protect themselves against potential Iranian threats or those by other countries.
• While prices fell from highs overnight, September soybeans gained 2-3/4 cents to $11.61-3/4 while November gained 3-1/4 cents to $11.79-1/2. September soybean meal lost $3.40 to $305.50 and September soybean oil gained 1.29 cents to 69.53 carrying the complex. Crude oil is up $3.93 to $82.15 a barrel.
• Today’s export inspections report was soft for soybeans with inspections totaling 14.7 million bushels for the week ending August 6. This put total inspections for 25/26 at 1.461 billion bushels, which is down 18% from the previous year.
• Estimates for Wednesday’s WASDE report see the soybean yield unchanged at 53.0 bpa but production slightly higher at 4,478 bb. 25/26 ending stocks are projected to fall by 7 mb to 323 mb while 26/27 ending stocks are expected to fall by 4 mb to 306 mb. World ending stocks for 26/26 are expected to be steady to slightly higher.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite a strong start this morning, wheat prices faded throughout the day. Ultimately winter wheat closed mostly higher, but spring wheat futures posted modest losses due to favorable conditions in Canada. Additionally, front month (September) MATIF wheat posted a bearish key reversal, which pressured US prices. In the September contract, Chicago gained 3/4 cent to 640-1/2, Kansas City lost 1/2 cent to 713-1/2, and MIAX dropped 9-1/2 cents to 670.
• Weekly wheat export inspections came in at 15.5 mb, which brings total 26/27 inspections to 122 mb, down 25% from last year. Inspections are currently running below the USDA’s estimated pace. Total 26/27 wheat exports are forecasted at 775 mb, down 15% from the year prior.
• According to the Saskatchewan agriculture ministry, an estimated 87% of the Canadian spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent.
• APK-Inform has increased their estimate of Ukrainian wheat production by 0.2 mmt to 22.6 mmt. Meanwhile, due to the ongoing logistics issues, they also lowered Ukraine’s wheat export forecast by 1.8 mmt to 13.5 mmt.
• A Reuters poll suggests US all wheat production will fall 11 mb on the WASDE report, to 1.525 bb. Additionally, US wheat ending stocks are anticipated to fall 7 mb to 715 mb.
• Southeastern areas of Australia received heavy rain over the weekend. This helped to alleviate the drier trend and should also improve their winter wheat conditions. However, less rainfall is forecasted this week and as El Nino strengthens, it could ultimately take a toll on their crops.
• According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, farmers in Argentina are about 70% sold on the 25/26 season’s wheat crop. The five-year average is closer to 86% at this time of the year. Reportedly, farmers are holding onto the grain due to stronger prices, encouraging them to wait. Nevertheless, total domestic sales have totaled 19 mmt so far, equal to the record from 2022.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III prices found some support today thanks to a decent trade for cheese. September futures gained 23 cents to close at $17.48.
• Spot cheese found some buyers to start the week with prices climbing 2.50 cents to $1.57625lb. Whey lost 0.25 cents to close at $0.6925/lb.
• Class IV was steady to weaker as butter failed to hold above $1.50/lb. The September contract was unchanged from Friday’s close at $17.85.
• Spot butter fell 1.50 cents to close at $1.4975/lb while powder tacked on 0.25 cents to go home at $1.58/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty