TFM Midday Update 8-12-2026

CORN

Corn is higher at midday as rising tensions in the Middle East provide support to the market, while strength in wheat is also spilling over into corn. December corn is up 8-1/2 cents at 4.69.
Volatility will likely remain high today with CONAB’s monthly update due this morning. CONAB is expected to estimate Brazil’s soybean crop near 141.1 million tons, down from 141.7 million last month.
USDA’s yield estimate today is expected at 182.4 BPA, down from 183 BPA last month, while new-crop ending stocks are anticipated to decline to 1.725 billion bushels from 1.790 billion in July.
The EU continues to see limited rain chances, with crop stress remaining high. DNT’s inaugural digital yield survey came in at 178.5 BPA.
Ethanol production rebounded to 328 million gallons, up from 325 million the previous week and 2% year over year.

Soybeans are posting gains at midday ahead of today’s USDA and CONAB reports, with both soybeans and soybean meal trading higher at midday. September soybeans are up 6-1/4 cents at 11.57-3/4.
USDA confirms the sale of 244,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in 2026/27.
CONAB is expected to peg Brazil’s soybean production at 181.1 million tons, up from 180.6 million last month.
Today’s WASDE report estimates soybean yields at 52.9 BPA, down slightly from 53 BPA last month, while harvested acres are anticipated to increase slightly.
The weather outlook remains bearish, with heavy storms moving through the eastern Corn Belt over the past 24 hours and more rain potentially developing across Iowa, Nebraska, and the eastern Corn Belt later this week into the weekend.

Wheat is sharply higher at midday following overnight reports that Ukraine attacked Russia’s major Novorossiysk port with hundreds of drones, halting port operations. December Chicago wheat is up 21-3/4 cents at 6.70 while December Kansas City wheat is up 28 cents at 7.44.
Russia’s grain exports during the first 10 days of August were down 18% year over year, while Ukraine’s total grain exports through yesterday were down 75% for the month.
Today’s USDA report is expected to put wheat ending stocks at 715 million bushels, down from 722 million last month. All wheat, winter wheat, HRW, and spring wheat categories are expected to see slight cuts.

Lauren VandenLangenberg