TFM Morning Update 08-24-2026

CORN

Corn futures have surged higher this morning as the market prices in Pro Farmer’s yield estimates. September corn is trading 14-1/2 cents higher at $4.98-1/4, while December corn is up 15 cents at $5.23-1/2.
Pro Farmer expects 2026 U.S. corn production to fall well below the USDA’s latest forecast, after its tour of seven major producing states found inconsistent crop conditions and weaker yield potential following adverse summer weather.
In France, corn condition ratings stabilized after falling to record-low levels, as exceptionally hot and dry summer weather has weighed heavily on crop conditions.

Soybean futures are trading mixed but mostly lower this morning, with old-crop futures posting slight gains. September soybeans are trading 1/2 cent higher at $12.25-1/2, while November soybeans are 1-1/2 cents lower at $12.38.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated U.S. soybean yield just 0.6 bushels per acre above the USDA’s August estimate, implying only a modest increase in production. As a result, the tour’s soybean findings are unlikely to significantly alter the current supply outlook.
Export demand remains a key source of support for soybeans, with China and unknown destinations purchasing nearly 53 million bushels of new-crop U.S. soybeans in recent flash sales. Traders will be watching whether the strong pace of demand continues into the new marketing year, when Chinese buying typically strengthens.

The wheat complex is trading higher across the board this morning, finding spillover support from strength in the corn market. Looking at September contracts, Chicago wheat is 15-1/4 cents higher at $6.96-3/4, Kansas City wheat is 12-3/4 cents higher at $7.69, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 9-3/4 cents higher at $7.08.
SovEcon lowered its Russian grain production forecast by 2.7 MMT to 132.6 MMT, while trimming its wheat production estimate by 0.3 MMT to 88.2 MMT. That puts SovEcon’s wheat estimate slightly below the USDA’s current forecast of 88.5 MMT.
The French soft wheat crop is reportedly showing good quality despite lower yields, as hot and dry conditions late in the season helped reduce disease pressure. However, a 3% increase in planted acreage was not enough to offset weaker yields, with production expected to decline 4.3% from last year to 31.92 MMT.

Matthew Lucas