TFM Midday Update 08-21-2026

CORN

Corn is higher at midday as questions surrounding U.S. crop size following this week’s Pro Farmer crop tour continue to provide support to the market. December corn is up 3-3/4 cents at 5.07-3/4.
The crop tour put Iowa’s yield at 194 bpa, down from 198.4 bpa last year but above the three-year average of 191.3 bpa. Minnesota’s yield was estimated at 199 bpa, down from 202.9 bpa last year. Final crop tour results are expected today.
USDA confirmed U.S. export sales of 205,000 tons of corn for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year to unknown destinations.
Cash corn prices in Brazil hit a three-month high this week. Datagro expects Brazilian corn production to increase 1.5%, while demand is projected to rise 4.5%, driven by a 14% increase in corn use for ethanol and a 4% increase in animal feed usage.

Soybeans are mixed at midday as the market continues to digest crop tour results. Soybeans are posting slight gains while soybean meal and oil are lower. September soybeans are up 1-1/2 cent at 12.22-1/4.
Final crop tour results are expected today, with results from yesterday’s portion of the tour coming in stronger than those seen earlier in the week. Iowa pod counts averaged 1,362.9, down from 1,384.4 last year but above the three-year average of 1,295.7. Minnesota pod counts averaged 1,257.8, up from 1,247.9 last year.
USDA confirmed U.S. export sales for 2026/27 delivery of 712,000 tons of soybeans to China and 720,000 tons to unknown destinations.
El Niño risk is another concern, as COFCO estimates Brazil’s planted area for soybeans will be slightly higher than last year, but the crop will face significant El Niño risk. The central and northern growing regions could be particularly vulnerable, as these areas typically experience drier conditions during El Niño years.

Wheat is lower at midday as the forecast shifts toward wetter conditions across the Central Plains, including Kansas. December Chicago wheat is down ½ cent at 6.99-1/4 while Kansas City December wheat is down 3 cents at 7.73-1/2.
Drought conditions remain much worse across the Southern Plains, but with Kansas being the top-producing state, any improvement in soil moisture would be beneficial ahead of fall seeding. Extremely hot temperatures are expected to continue across the Southern Plains, although the Week 2 forecast shows the hottest temperatures shifting toward the Southwest U.S.
U.S. winter wheat under drought conditions increased 2% this week, while HRS wheat under drought remained unchanged at 63%, compared with just 14% at the same time last year.
The International Grains Council lowered its global wheat production estimate by 4 million metric tons to 817 million, citing lower production estimates for the U.K., EU, and Russia.

Lauren VandenLangenberg