TFM Morning Update 08-25-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning as the market sees profit-taking following the recent rally into technically overbought territory. September corn is trading 1 cent lower at $4.90-1/2, while December corn is 1-1/2 cents lower at $5.14.
Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn condition ratings fell 3 percentage points to 57% good to excellent, below analyst expectations of 59%. Ratings are now at their lowest level for this time of year since 2023.
In Europe, crop monitoring service MARS lowered its EU corn yield forecast for the second consecutive month, as heat and drought have reduced production potential.

Soybean futures are trading slightly lower this morning as the market faces pressure from reports that the U.S. is considering additional tariffs on Chinese goods, raising concerns over trade relations and soybean demand. September soybeans are trading 4-3/4 cents lower at $12.11-1/4, while November soybeans are 6-1/2 cents lower at $12.17-3/4.
Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report showed 91% of the U.S. soybean crop setting pods, while 6% was dropping leaves. Condition ratings declined 1 percentage point to 60% good to excellent, with the Brugler500 index falling 4 points to 357.
The U.S. is reportedly considering a new 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods, citing concerns over excess manufacturing capacity. The proposal comes ahead of a planned meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month, though the tariff rate has not yet been finalized.

The wheat complex is facing pressure across the board this morning. Looking at September contracts, Chicago wheat is trading 9-1/4 cents lower at $6.72-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 14-1/4 cents lower at $7.36-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 8-3/4 cents lower at $6.85.
Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 15.6 million bushels, bringing 2026/27 inspections to 159 million bushels, down 26% from last year. Inspections continue to run below the pace needed to reach the USDA’s 775-million-bushel export forecast, which is down 15% from last year.
Reports that Russia rejected Ukraine’s proposed truce on attacks against Black Sea grain shipping initially added some risk premium to wheat. However, the fact that the two sides are discussing a potential agreement may have limited support, as traders weighed the possibility of an eventual diplomatic resolution.

Matthew Lucas