CORN
- Corn futures jumped higher overnight Sunday after last week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the U.S. corn yield at 173.2 bpa, well below USDA’s latest estimate of 180.7 bpa. December corn futures are currently 5-1/2 cents higher at 514 while March futures are 5-1/2 higher at 529.
- Pollination issues and lower ear counts were the primary contributors to Pro Farmer’s disappointing yield findings last week. While Pro Farmer has historically underestimated USDA’s final yield, the 7.5 bpa gap between the tour and USDA is the largest in the past 20 years.
- Managed money has been a major driver of the recent corn rally. Funds are estimated to hold a net long position of nearly 290,000 contracts to start the week, up more than 100,000 contracts in just the past week and a half.
SOYBEANS
- Soybean futures are retreating from their recent highs to start the week. November soybeans are currently down 16 cents at 1223 while March futures are down 15 at 1244.
- Unlike corn, Pro Farmer found strong yield potential for soybeans last week, estimating a record national yield of 53.3 bpa.
- Soybean export sales remained active last week, with China continuing to purchase U.S. soybeans. China has now reportedly committed to roughly 9 mmt of the 25 mmt pledged last October.
WHEAT
- Wheat futures are mixed to start the week. December CBOT wheat futures are 3-1/4 higher at 702-3/4 while December KC wheat futures are 1 lower at 771-1/2. Spring wheat in its December contract is 2 lower currently at 722-1/4
- Roughly one-third of global wheat exports flow through the Black Sea each year, but damage to key infrastructure has severely disrupted grain movement in the region.
- Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada broke down after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Canadian imports. Canada has pledged to retaliate with a matching 50% tariff beginning September 8, adding another layer of uncertainty to North American agricultural trade.
Author
Keegan Madigan