TFM Midday Update 8-26-2026

CORN

Corn prices are trading higher at midday, supported by growing concerns over potential El Niño conditions. December corn is 1-3/4 cents higher at 5.25-1/4.
South America will need a strong crop this season, as the EU is expected to have a poor crop and U.S. production estimates have declined from a month ago. Dr. Cordonnier lowered his U.S. yield estimate by 1 bpa to 179 bpa.
LSEG’s extended-range forecast has introduced another crop risk, with models now calling for much cooler temperatures across the Midwest in September, raising concerns about the potential for an early frost.
Ethanol production edged higher to 1,112 tbd up from 1,089 tbd the previous week and up 3.9% from YA.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday, supported by continued demand from China. Soybean meal is also higher, while soybean oil is trading lower. September soybeans are 5-1/2 cents higher at 12.33-1/2.
USDA confirms the sale of 333,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in 2026/27.
Dr. Cordonnier left his U.S. soybean yield forecast unchanged at 51.5 bpa, below the USDA’s estimate of 52.7 bpa.
AgroConsult’s forecast yesterday called for Brazil’s planted area this fall to remain unchanged at 49.2 million hectares. However, higher input costs are expected to keep farm profits tight, while El Niño risks remain elevated.
Brazil’s fertilizer deliveries, including both imports and domestic production, are expected to decline 7%. Fertilizer producer Mosaic is also working with the government on a $2 billion subsidy plan aimed at keeping fertilizer prices affordable for Brazilian farmers.

Wheat is trading noticeably higher at midday as ongoing global conflicts continue to provide support to the market. December Chicago wheat is 11 cents higher at 7.14-1/4 while December Kansas City wheat is 6-1/4 cents higher at 7.77.
Wheat markets strengthened this morning following overnight attacks between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine struck a large refinery in the Volga region, while an attack on the Novorossiysk port halted grain loading at the terminals. Repairs to the terminal could take up to four months.
This morning’s forecast shows less precipitation for the Northern Plains spring wheat areas and western Kansas over the next week, with totals generally less than three-quarters of an inch. Greater amounts of moisture are needed to replenish soil moisture in the Southern Plains.

Lauren VandenLangenberg