TFM Midday Update 08-31-2026

CORN

Corn futures are starting the week quiet after last week’s surge to new highs. December corn is down a half cent, currently trading at 536-1/4 while March futures are ¾ of a cent higher at 552.
Managed money funds were estimated to be more than 400,000 contracts long corn to start the week, with aggressive fund buying fueling the recent rally. This is the largest late-August net-long position on record. Such a large position heading into harvest could become a headwind if farmer selling increases at the same time funds begin liquidating positions.
Increasing heat and declining precipitation chances are expected to dominate the start of September across the Corn Belt. While much of the I-states received above-normal precipitation in August, a hotter and drier start to September could shorten the grain-fill window and accelerate maturity, potentially limiting yield potential in areas where the crop still has time to add weight.

Soybean futures are up slightly to start the week. November soybeans are up a ½ cent at 1288-1/2 while March soybeans are 2-3/4 cents higher at 1309-1/4.
Soybean demand continues to remain strong despite the recent rally in prices. The USDA confirmed the sale of 159,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year that starts Tuesday.
The EPA is expected to announce small refinery exemptions later today, with the market concerned that exemptions could be significantly higher than anticipated. A larger-than-expected number of exemptions could pressure soybean oil futures, which have benefited throughout 2026 from strong biofuel demand and policy optimism.

After skyrocketing to new highs on Friday, all three wheat classes are lower Monday. December CBOT wheat is down 19 cents at 765. December KCBOT wheat is down 23 cents at 821 while December MIAX spring wheat is down 18 at 751-1/4.
There was little material change in the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the weekend, with attacks continuing from both sides. Russia is now attempting to route more grain through the Baltic Sea, as the Black and Azov Seas are effectively closed to normal grain movement.
There was little material change in the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the weekend, with attacks continuing from both sides. Russia is now attempting to route more grain through the Baltic Sea, as the Black and Azov Seas are effectively closed to normal grain movement.

Keegan Madigan