The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 7, in Observance of Labor Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures battled back from sharp overnight losses to finish only marginally lower, as volatility in wheat triggered long liquidation across the grain complex. December corn futures lost 2 ¾ cents to 540 ¾, and March traded 2 ¼ cents lower to 556. December corn close 14 ¼ cents off the session low.
• Russian President Putin made comments regarding looking at a peace agreement with Ukraine, which would be supported by numerous international countries to get wheat exports moving out of the Black Sea region. The headline triggered aggressive long liquidation during the overnight session.
• New crop corn export sales were stronger than expected, with USDA reporting 1.986 MMT (78.2 mb) for the week ending August 27. Old-crop sales showed net cancellations of 830,000 MT (-32.7 mb), largely reflecting the typical rollover of sales into the new marketing year. The 2025-26 marketing year ended August 31. Current new crop corn export sales are 568.9 million bushels. This total is good from a historical perspective, but down 31% from this time frame last year.
• Corn market could be losing some short-term momentum going into the Labor Day weekend. The market could be influenced by trading activity in other grain markets and position squaring for the 3-day weekend and markets being closed on Monday. 

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans finished higher Thursday after recovering from a sharply lower overnight move, when Putin said he would consider a peace deal with Ukraine. Traders remain skeptical of Russia’s comments, allowing prices to recover. Additional Chinese purchases and expectations for a lower USDA yield estimate also provided support.
• November soybeans gained 6 cents to $13.16-1/4 and did not take out yesterday’s high and also did take out yesterday’s low which could be a technical sell signal. March soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents to $13.36-3/4, October soybean meal gained $5.70 to $348.60, and October soybean oil lost 1.01 cents to 69.63 cents. Crude oil is up 42 cents a barrel to $91.45.
• Soybean export sales landed within expectations, with USDA reporting a 3.5 mb reduction for 2025-26 and 71.6 mb of new sales for 2026-27. China, unknown destinations and Egypt were the top buyers. Last week’s shipments of 11.5 mb were well below the 22.1 mb weekly pace needed to meet USDA’s annual projection.
• Allendale estimates the 2026 U.S. soybean yield at 52.6 bpa, with production at 4.515 billion bushels. Both figures are below USDA and Pro Farmer estimates, adding to expectations that USDA could lower its yield estimate in this month’s WASDE.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted double-digit losses today but did finish well above session lows. Early weakness stemmed from comments by Russian President Putin that there is a chance for peace with Ukraine. This likely triggered profit taking after such a strong run higher. A sharp drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, along with skepticism about Putin’s comments, allowed wheat to rebound somewhat. In the December contract, Chicago lost 19-3/4 cents to 754-1/4, Kansas City fell 18-3/4 cents to 815-1/2, and MIAX dropped 16-1/2 cents to 765-1/2.
• The USDA reported an increase of 11.5 mb of wheat export sales for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 17.4 mb, which was above the 15 mb pace needed per week to reach their 775 mb export goal. Total 26/27 wheat export commitments now sit at 315 mb, down 31% from last year.
• Turkish President Erdogan also raised concerns over Black Sea grain logistics, saying a safety mechanism for marine grain transport is needed before the situation develops into another grain crisis.
• According to the German agriculture ministry, their nation’s 2026 grain production will fall 7.3% to 37.4 mmt due to heat and drought this summer. Additionally, all wheat production is now estimated at 20.81 mmt. If realized, that would be a decline of 10.1% year on year. Germany is the second largest wheat grower in the EU, behind France.
• Saudi Arabia is reported to have issued a tender for 535,000 mt of wheat for shipment in November/December. Shipment is sought only for ports in the Red Sea, to avoid disruptions and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Because of Black Sea logistics issues, there could be a wide range of alternative origins.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed but the second month October closed up 11 cents at $16.70, coming off its morning low of $16.41.
• Spot cheese was up slightly, still sitting just above $1.50/lb, and whey was up a penny to $0.75/lb.
• Class IV milk was lower again, ranging from 1 to 18 cents of losses out into next year. October lost a penny to move to $18.50.
• Butter was 3.25 cents higher to cut its weekly losses to 2.25 cents heading into Friday. Powder was unchanged.
• Cheese exports hit another all-time high in July at more than 65,000 metric tons, while butter was still impressive but trending lower at 12,528 metric tons.
• All four major products saw a year-over-year increase in production in the month of July. Cheese hit 1.26 billion lbs (up 2.1% YoY) and butter was 189 million lbs (up 5.5%).

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Author

John Heinberg