TFM Morning Update 09-16-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading quietly lower this morning with prices beginning to stagnate as harvest begins. December corn is down 1 cent to $5.34-3/4 while March is down 3/4 cent to $5.49-1/2.
Conab updated its estimates for corn production yesterday increasing it to 144.01 mmt from 142.96 mmt a month ago. Export estimates were cut however by 3 mmt which is expected to go towards domestic use due to stronger ethanol demand.
While the corn harvest is only 8% complete, Texas is leading the way with states like North Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee advancing too. The most interesting data from the report was crop ratings improving by 1 point good to excellent with Colorado and Ohio leading the improvements.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning with pressure from soybean meal, and the November contract has been overbought for nearly a month and may be topping out. November soybeans are down 7 cents to $12.97 while March is down 7 cents to $13.21. October soybean meal is down $2.60 to $353.60 and soybean oil is up 0.15 cents to 69.80 cents with higher crude oil.
The Crop Progress report saw crop ratings for soybeans remain unchanged from last week at 58% good to excellent which compares to 63% at this time last year. 6% of the crop is harvested which is ahead of pace.
Yesterday’s export inspections were good for soybeans at 673k tons which compared to 465k last week and 823k a year ago. Top destinations were to China, Indonesia, and Japan.

Wheat is trading quietly this morning with prices seemingly at the bottom of their longer term uptrend line. December Chicago wheat is down 1 cent to $7.27-1/4, KC is down 1 cent to $7.95, and Minn wheat is up 2 cents to $7.50-1/2.
In Canada, farmers are reportedly struggling with rains delaying harvest and hurting quality. This crop was expected to be one of the best ever. Canada is one of the world’s biggest exporters of canola and is a major wheat producer.
SovEcon has stated that the Black Sea wheat risk is “substantially underpriced” as the market acts like routes will quickly recover, but there has been no clear path to normal shipping or a cease in hostilities.

Amanda Brill