CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Buying strength in the soybean market helped pull both wheat and corn futures higher late in the session to help the corn market lift to its highest close over the past seven days. December corn gained 2 ½ cents to 535 ¾, while March added 2 ¼ cents to 550 ¼.
• Crude oil prices continued to trade higher, gaining 4-5% during the session. The strength in crude helped push grain markets higher on Tuesday.
• The USDA crop progress report showed that the corn crop was 42% mature. This was 4% ahead of the 5-year average at 38%. Corn harvest has moved to 8% harvested, 1% above last year and 2% over the 5-year average.
• The Brazil ag agency, CONAB, raised their estimates for corn production on the second crop by 1.1 MMT to 112.13 MMT. Total corn production was raised to 144.01 MMT, up 2.8 MMT from last year.
• Commodity markets in general will be watching the decision by the Fed Reserve on Wednesday regarding a potential interest rate rise. An increased interest rate will support the US dollar and could pressure commodities in general. The announcement will be at 1:00 CST on Wednesday.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after recovering from lower prices earlier in the day. The main driver for soybeans has been skyrocketing crude oil prices as the war in Iran shuts down main avenues for crude oil transportation. Chinese purchases of US soybeans continue to support the market as well.
• November soybeans gained 14-1/2 cents to $13.18-3/4 taking out yesterday’s high but not managing to take out last week’s high of $13.35. March soybeans gained 15 cents to $13.43, October soybean meal gained $9.90 to $360.10 which was the highest level since May 2024, and October soybean oil gained 0.23 cents to 69.88 cents. October crude oil gained $4.45 to $105.89.
• Conab released its estimates for Brazilian soybean production with the 25/26 number down slightly from last month at 180.41 mmt and exports down to 116.20 mmt. Ending stocks are seen at 9.17 mmt for 25/26. Their first outlook for 26/27 soybean production is now at 181.6 mmt, which is the slowest soy area growth in 20 years.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the soybean harvest advance to 6% complete in the US which is above last year at this time and the 5-year average. The faster pace of maturity could negatively impact yields. Soybean ratings were unchanged from last week at 58% good to excellent.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat rejected early weakness to close with green across the screen. Spring wheat led the way higher, potentially due to expectations for a supportive report tomorrow from Stats Canada. In the December contract, Chicago gained 6-1/2 cents to 728-1/2, Kansas City was up 3-3/4 at 796-1/4, and MIAX rallied 12-1/4 cents to 748-1/2.
• According to the USDA, as of September 13, spring wheat harvest advanced 7% to 93% complete. This is in line with last year, and 1% above the five-year average. Additionally, winter wheat plantings advanced 4% to 8% complete. This pace falls below last year’s 10% figure, and the five-year average of 12%.
• Energy prices are up sharply this afternoon, with spot crude oil pushing into new high territory. As of writing, today’s high in October crude was $106.75/barrel. Higher energy prices have largely resulted from continued Middle East tensions, with Saudi Arabia closing a key pipeline over the weekend. Higher energies may have helped to support grain prices today.
• Upside in HRW wheat futures today may have been somewhat limited by improved chances for moisture in the forecast in the US central and southern plains. Much of this area has been affected by drought, but rain could benefit establishment of the crop just as winter wheat planting is starting to get underway.
• SovEcon estimates Russian September wheat exports at 1.8 mmt. This would fall well under the 4.6 mmt shipped in September of 2025. Furthermore, this would also be 200,000 mt below the total shipped last month.
• Tomorrow, Statistics Canada will release updated crop data at 8:30 AM ET. According to a Bloomberg survey, their 26/27 all wheat production is expected to fall 4.1% to 38.3 mmt, versus 40 mmt last year. Meanwhile, durum wheat production, in specific, looks to fall 10.8% year over year to 6.4 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The nearby Class III contracts came off their morning lows while many of the 2027 contracts were under pressure today.
• Spot cheese saw blocks up 1.50 cents while barrels were unchanged from a $1.4375/lb settlement. Whey was up a quarter cent to $0.7625/lb.
• Many deferred Class IV contracts faced pressure today, but the nearby contracts were unchanged or faced small changes from Monday.
• Spot powder hit a new high for the move by gaining another 4 cents, closing at $2.0350/lb. Butter was down 1.50 cents today, moving to $1.3550/lb.
• The Global Dairy Trade Auction from this morning saw the index fall, cheese rally strongly, and butter fall from two weeks ago.

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill