TFM Morning Update 09-25-2026

CORN

Corn futures have slipped lower as harvest-season pressure begins to outweigh the market’s recent upward momentum. December corn is 10 cents lower at $5.17-1/2, while March corn is also 10 cents lower at $5.31-1/2.
Corn export sales for the week ending September 17 totaled 838,000 MT, near the lower end of analyst expectations. Total 2026/27 marketing-year commitments remain 29% below year-ago levels.
Wet conditions and rainfall across parts of the Midwest have limited harvest activity, providing some support to corn futures. Cooler-than-average temperatures and above-normal rainfall are expected across portions of the Corn Belt over the next two weeks.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning as the market remains within its recent range. November soybeans are 13-1/2 cents lower at $13.04, while January soybeans are 13-3/4 cents lower at $13.18-1/4.
The latest U.S.-China summit produced no new agricultural purchase commitments, while elevated Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. Dollar Index added pressure to grain markets by reducing the competitiveness of U.S. crops overseas.
A two-month extension of the current U.S.-China trade truce was agreed to, but larger trade issues were pushed into further negotiations. China is reportedly on pace to meet its 25 MMT annual U.S. soybean purchase commitment, while its separate pledge to buy $17 billion of other U.S. agricultural products remains behind schedule.

The wheat complex is facing heavy pressure yet again this morning. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 15-1/2 cents lower at $6.91-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 16-1/4 cents lower at $7.50-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 9-3/4 cents lower at $7.10-1/2.
Wheat futures continue to face pressure and are on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline as traders weigh the potential for improved Black Sea exports. A stronger U.S. Dollar Index has added pressure by reducing the competitiveness of U.S. wheat in global markets.
Traders remain focused on renewed diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and restore the Black Sea grain export corridor, with Turkey saying it is stepping up efforts toward an agreement. So far, disruptions to Russian and Ukrainian exports have not translated into increased export business for the U.S.

Matthew Lucas