CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures fell under selling pressure as details of the recent U.S.-China meeting were released, putting pressure on soybeans, which pressured the grain markets in general. Corn futures pulled off session lows but still finished with marginal losses on the session. December corn was down 5 ¼ cents to 523 and March lost 5 ½ cents to 536 ¼.
• China will eliminate the tariff on corn being imported into China as part of the details from the U.S.-China meeting last week. The reduced tariff could open U.S. corn for export to China, but price levels between U.S. and China corn futures could make that difficult at this moment.
• The USDA released the Weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. For the week ending September 24, U.S. exporters shipped 1.566 MMT (61.6 mb) of corn. This was down from last week, but the current shipment pace is 12% ahead of last year.
• The USDA will release the Quarterly Grain Stocks report on September 30. The USDA could make changes to the 2025-26 corn harvest and finalize demand for the last marketing year. Expectations are for fourth quarter grain stocks to be near 1.911 bb, up 360 mb from the Sept 1 total last year.
• Wet weather across the western Corn Belt could slow harvest into early October. USDA will show harvest progress on Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report.  A focus will be the amount of activity in the Western Corn Belt, which has been impacted by wet weather. 

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower due to a disappointing follow-up on Friday’s meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi. After the meeting, few details were revealed, but over the weekend it was announced that they agreed to a 30 billion dollar reciprocal tariff reduction and would begin discussions on AI. This was disappointing because soybeans were not discussed.
• November soybeans lost 30-3/4 cents to $12.88-1/4 which was a technical break to the downside from the previous range soybeans have been in for the past three weeks. March soybeans lost 27-1/2 cents to $13.12, December soybean meal lost $11.60 to $359.40, and December soybean oil lost 0.18 cents to 67.66 cents despite November crude oil slightly higher by 5 cents to $92.47.
• Today’s Export Inspections report was strong for soybeans. Inspections totaled 42.4 million bushels for the week ending September 24. This put total inspections for 26/27 at 105 million bushels, which is up 26% from this time last year. The USDA is estimating total exports for the year to be up 11% from last year.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 20,331 contracts leaving them long 265,041 contracts. They sold 14,272 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 96,622 contracts and bought 6,822 contracts of meal, increasing their net long position to 192,368 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed sharply lower – the entire grain complex was pressured by tumbling soybean futures and a lack of fresh, friendly news. While the announced reduction of many reciprocal tariffs may eventually result in China buying US wheat, traders were largely focused on the fact that the soybean tariff was not reduced. MATIF wheat also closed lower despite the weaking euro, which likely spilled over pressure into the US market. In the December contract, Chicago fell 14-1/2 cents to 688-3/4, Kansas City dropped 16-1/4 cents to 745-3/4, and MIAX lost 11-3/4 cents to 701-3/4.
• Weekly wheat export inspections were pegged at 11.4 mb, which brings total 26/27 inspections to 233 mb, down 34% from last year. Inspections are currently running far under the USDA’s estimated pace; total 26/27 exports are forecasted at 775 mb, down 15% from the year prior.
• Turkey is reported to have submitted an offer to Russia that would allow for Black Sea grain shipments. However, at this time there are no peace talks being considered. On a bearish note, if a peace agreement is reached, a Reuters report suggests that 80% of Russian Black Sea port terminals could be operational as they have not suffered significant damage.
• LSEG data indicates that a French vessel is loading 60,000 mt of wheat to be shipped to Yemen. This would be their first shipment to the Middle Eastern nation since 2022. Additionally, France is said to have exported wheat to Egypt and Sudan over the past few weeks. All of this signals the effect of the disruptions in the Black Sea, as importing countries have turned to other origins.
• Over the weekend, western Australia saw scattered showers, but it was dry in the east. The system may move to the east this week, but overall, it has been dry the past couple months, which may pressure their crops. Elsewhere, recent rains in south-central China should help with wheat planting and establishment, but more moisture will be needed.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were down again today with the November contract getting hit the hardest, dropping 38 cents to $15.48.
• Both spot cheese and whey were unchanged today, sitting at $1.38/lb and $0.8050/lb, respectively.
• Class IV futures were a mixed bag today with the second month contract dropping a nickel from Friday to close at $20.25.
• Spot butter fell 3 cents to post a $1.37/lb close while powder was up a penny for a $2.18/lb settlement. 

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty