CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A larger-than-anticipated corn supply picture in Wednesday’s USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report pushed corn futures sharply lower to close out September. December corn dropped 21 ¼ cents to 500 ¾ cents while March lost 20 ½ cents to 515 ½.
• September was a difficult month for corn futures, with harvest pressure, slowing export sales and larger-than-expected supplies weighing on prices. December corn lost 37 cents during the month and finished 49 cents below its September high.
• The USDA reported September 1 corn stocks of 2.095 billion bushels, 177 million above the trade average and 544 million above last year. The USDA also cut the 2025 corn crop by 57 million bushels. The larger stocks figure is expected to be reflected in a 230-million-bushel reduction to the feed and residual demand category in the revised September WASDE.
• Ethanol production fell to 296 million gallons last week, down 6 million gallons from last week. This was the lowest weekly production in 8 months, but in line with expectations. A total of 99 mb of corn was used last week.
• After this week’s wet weather, weather forecasts are looking more friendly for harvest to pick up in the western corn belt as a warmer drier forecast looks to aid harvest into the middle of the month.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower retreating from highs earlier in the day despite a friendly USDA report. Soybeans were dragged lower by sharp declines in both corn and wheat. Crude oil was higher despite reports that an increasing amount of oil is being exported through the Middle East.
• November soybeans lost 4-3/4 cents to $12.93 and are now below technical support at the 13 dollar mark. March soybeans lost 3 cents to $13.18-1/2, December soybean meal lost $2.10 to $356.90, and December soybean oil lost 0.08 cents to 68.28 cents. November crude oil is up $1.30 to $90.64 a barrel.
• Today’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report was neutral to friendly for soybeans with 25/26 production relatively unchanged at 4.261 billion bushels from 4.262 in the USDA’s last estimate. Stocks were seen at 315 million bushels, which was slightly below estimates and down from last year’s 325 mb.
• Wet weather has impacted the western Corn Belt, and the forecast remains wet into the first part of October. Key soybean producing state of Iowa has only harvested 3% of the soybean crop. This total is 14% below last year and 12% below the 5-year average.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures fell sharply Wednesday, likely pressured primarily by the weakness in corn. USDA data was relatively neutral for the wheat complex. In the December contract, Chicago dropped 17 cents to 675-3/4, Kansas City was down 10 cents at 733, and MIAX lost 6 cents to 693-1/4.
• The USDA pegged September 1 U.S. wheat stocks at 1.846 billion bushels, 3 million below the average pre-report estimate. Stocks were up sharply from 920 million on June 1 but down from 2.134 billion a year ago.
• On the Small Grains Summary report, the USDA estimated 2026 all wheat production at 1.534 bb, which was above the average pre-report estimate by 7 mb, and also 3 mb above the August estimate. However, this is still down 23% from last year’s total of 1.985 bb. In the breakdown by class, production came in at 1.02 bb for winter wheat, 450 mb for spring wheat, 259 mb for white wheat, and 64.8 mb for durum wheat.
• According to Ukrainian farmers union, UAC, their nation’s wheat exports may fall even further during October and November. This decline is expected due to the recent corn harvest, which should use up a larger amount of their shipping capacity.
• Pakistan is reported to have purchased 180,000 mt of wheat in their tender (which was for 185,000 mt). They are said to have paid about $339/mt on a CNF basis, for shipment in November.
• SovEcon has reduced their estimate of Russian wheat exports by 4.7 mmb to 36.7 mmt. For reference, this is well below the USDA figure of 43 mmt.
• According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports have reached 6.8 mmt since their export season began on July 1. In related news, they also cut the EU’s total 26/27 grain production forecast 9.6% year over year to 262 mmt. In spite of that, the hard wheat forecast was increased 4.1% from the August estimate, to 7.7 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures rebounded today, with November gaining 24 cents to close at $15.50/cwt.
• Spot cheese slipped 0.25 cents to close at $1.36125/lb, while spot whey gained 0.50 cents to finish at $0.8150/lb.
• Class IV futures also posted gains, with November climbing 25 cents to close at $20.50/cwt.
• Spot butter gained 4.25 cents to close at $1.360/lb, while spot powder rose 0.75 cents to finish at $2.20/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill