TFM Morning Update 10-05-2026

CORN

Corn futures have continued to consolidate, with nearby contracts breaking back above the $5.00 level. December corn is 3-1/4 cents higher at $5.01, while March corn is 3-3/4 cents higher at $5.15-1/4.
Corn futures remained under pressure as larger-than-expected U.S. inventories and weak export demand weighed on prices. USDA reported September 1 corn stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% from a year ago.
The data reinforced concerns over abundant supplies as harvest progresses, with drier weather expected to allow fieldwork to accelerate across much of the Midwest. Export demand has also remained soft, with 2026/27 U.S. corn commitments totaling 18.774 MMT, down 31% from a year ago and 8% below the five-year average.

Soybean futures are trading higher as the market rebounds from recent weakness. November soybeans are 11-1/4 cents higher at $12.89-1/2, while January soybeans are 11-3/4 cents higher at $13.06-1/4.
StoneX is forecasting 2026 U.S. soybean production at 4.648 billion bushels, with an average yield of 54.1 bpa, up from 53.0 bpa last month. The estimate is well above USDA’s September production forecast of 4.535 billion bushels and represents a 101 mb increase from StoneX’s previous outlook.
August soybean crush totaled 209.6 mb, nearly 1 mb below trade expectations and down 5.5% from July, but 5.9% above a year ago. Full marketing-year crush reached 2.645 billion bushels, slightly below USDA’s 2.655 billion bushel estimate.

The wheat complex is trading higher across the board as renewed Black Sea concerns add risk premium back into the market. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 12-1/4 cents higher at $6.95-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 11-1/4 cents higher at $7.46-1/2, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 11 cents higher at $7.09.
Over the weekend, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its military would intensify strikes on Ukrainian military facilities, defense-industry sites, and related infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine would respond by increasing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, particularly oil refineries.
Black Sea wheat supplies have been severely constrained since July, with any further escalation threatening additional export disruptions and complicating Turkey’s efforts to keep the key trade route open.

Matthew Lucas