CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market closed the week under pressure as weak energy prices, and improved harvest weather forecasts pressured the market. December corn lost 4 ½ cents to 497 ¾, while March slipped 5 ¼ to 511 ½. For the week December corn lost 30 ½ cents.
• Crude oil prices traded sharply lower during Friday’s session, with WTI falling roughly 4% and Brent down around 3%. Reports of coordinated releases of diesel and crude oil from strategic reserves pressured the energy complex, while improving oil flows from the Middle East provided additional downside pressure.
• Following this week’s wet weather, forecasts are turning more favorable for harvest across the western Corn Belt. Warmer, drier conditions are expected to help harvest activity pick up through mid-month. Longer-term 6–10-day forecast predicts most of the corn belt to be below normal in rainfall and above normal in temperature out past October 10.
• USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Friday morning. Mexico purchased 218,600 MT of corn with 173,800 MT for 2026-27, 22,400 MT for 2027-28, and 22,400 MT for 2028-29.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures continued to face selling pressure today as weakness in corn spilled over into the soybean market. November soybeans closed 5-3/4 cents lower at $12.78-1/4, while January soybeans fell 6-1/4 cents to close at $12.94-1/2.
• USDA released its August crush report yesterday afternoon, showing a record-high 209.63 million bushels processed for the month. However, the figure came in below trade expectations of 211.3 million bushels. November soybeans were down 6-3/4 cents at 12.77-1/4 while January soybeans were down 7-3/4 cents at 12.93.
• An improved weather outlook is easing some harvest concerns. Showers may linger across the Eastern Belt and Mid-South today, but the Plains and Midwest are expected to turn warmer and drier over the next two weeks, allowing crops to dry out and harvest to progress.
• StoneX is forecasting U.S. soybean production at 4.648 billion bushels, with an average yield of 54.1 BPA, up from 53 BPA last month. This is well above the USDA’s September estimate of 4.535 billion bushels and represents a 101-million-bushel increase from StoneX’s previous forecast.
• USDA released its August crush report yesterday afternoon, showing a record-high 209.63 million bushels processed for the month. However, the figure came in below trade expectations of 211.3 million bushels.
• Soybean oil stocks came in well below expectations at 1.696 billion pounds versus the estimated 1.800 billion. Meanwhile, soybean meal stocks rose to 452,500 tons, up from 366,900 tons in July. Bean basis is beginning to soften in some western areas as processors scale back the hefty premiums they had been paying to secure soybeans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed on both sides of neutral. On one hand, a higher MATIF close, oversold conditions, and a drop in the US Dollar after a weaker than expected jobs report were all supportive factors. On the other hand, lower energy prices and weakness in corn and soybean futures today may have limited any rally in the wheat complex. In the December contract, Chicago gained 1/4 cent to 683, Kansas City fell 2-1/4 cents to 735-1/4, and MIAX closed 1-1/4 cents higher at 698.
• Russia’s President Putin is reported to have formally rejected proposals to end military attacks on Black Sea vessels, in return for Ukraine halting strikes on Russian energy refineries. This may have helped to support today’s wheat trade.
• Ukraine’s agriculture minister is anticipating their nation’s winter crop planting will be down 15% this year. Low prices and shipping restrictions are cited as reasons for the lower estimate.
• Estonia has banned the transport of Russian and Belarusian grain through their nation to Baltic Sea ports. Now it is being said that Latvia and Lithuania are considering similar measures. This will further work to reduce Russia’s ability to export wheat.
• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has kept their forecast of 2026 global cereal production largely unchanged at 2.979 billion mt, which would be the second highest total on record. However, for wheat specifically, they did increase the production estimate by 3.2 mmt to 813.9 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures closed with strong gains as the November contract jumped 46 cents to finish at $15.96.
• With unchanged barrels, a 3.25 cent gain in blocks brought the block/barrel average to $1.3775/lb. Whey was unchanged.
• The Class IV market was higher today as well with the second month contract garnering 15 cents to close at $20.65.
• Butter fell 2.00 cents today, entering Friday down 6.00 cents on the week, while powder was up a half cent today for a new high on the move.

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Author

John Heinberg