TFM Morning Update 10-08-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher after nearby contracts tested support near the $5.00 level. December corn is 3/4 cent higher at $5.02-3/4, while March corn is 3/4 cent higher at $5.17-3/4.
USDA will release its October Crop Production report Friday morning. The average trade estimate calls for corn yield to decline to 177.7 bpa, down from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bpa.
The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in more than 24 years on Wednesday, helping support the U.S. Dollar Index near its recent highs. A stronger dollar tends to pressure commodity markets by making U.S. commodities more expensive for foreign buyers and potentially reducing export demand.

Soybean futures are trading slightly lower as the market awaits Friday’s WASDE report. November soybeans are 3 cents lower at $12.94-1/2, while January soybeans are 2-3/4 cents lower at $13.11-3/4.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report call for 2026/27 U.S. soybean ending stocks to remain virtually unchanged at 309 mb, compared with USDA’s September estimate of 310 mb. Harvested area is expected to remain unchanged at 85.9 million acres, while yield is projected to increase 0.1 bpa.
Oil prices moved higher as concerns over Middle East supply intensified following increased attacks on shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The wheat complex is mixed but mostly higher. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 2-1/2 cents higher at $6.89, Kansas City wheat is 1-1/2 cents higher at $7.40, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1/2 cent lower at $7.09-3/4.
Russian grain exports through Baltic ports reached 1.4 MMT in September and are expected to increase to 1.8 MMT in October. Total Russian wheat exports were estimated at 2.5 MMT in September, with shipments forecast to rise to 3.0 MMT in October.
Taiwan issued a tender for 105,800 MT of U.S. milling wheat, with offers due October 7. Jordan has also issued an international tender for up to 120,000 MT of milling wheat from optional origins.

Matthew Lucas