TFM Morning Update 10-09-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning as the market prepares for today’s WASDE report. December corn is 3/4 cent higher at $5.01, while March corn is 3/4 cent higher at $5.16.
A Reuters poll shows analysts expect U.S. corn production to decline to 15.721 billion bushels, with 2026/27 ending stocks projected at 1.670 billion bushels in Friday’s USDA report. The average pre-report yield estimate is 177.8 bpa, down from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bpa.
USDA’s Export Sales report showed 769,468 MT of corn sales for the week ending October 1, up 43.6% from the previous week but 65.9% below the same week last year. Mexico was the top buyer at 508,800 MT.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning as the market continues to square positions ahead of today’s WASDE release. November soybeans are 6-1/4 cents higher at $12.93-3/4, while January soybeans are 5-3/4 cents higher at $13.10.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report call for 2026/27 U.S. soybean ending stocks to remain virtually unchanged at 309 mb, compared with USDA’s September estimate of 310 mb. Harvested area is expected to remain unchanged at 85.9 million acres, while yield is projected to increase 0.1 bpa to 52.9 bpa, resulting in a slight increase in production.
Yesterday’s Export Sales report showed 2026/27 soybean sales of 20.2 mb, within trade expectations, with no sales reported for 2027/28 as of October 1. Sales were down 47% from the previous week and 34% below the prior four-week average.

The wheat complex is mixed but mostly higher in nearby contracts. Looking at December futures, Chicago wheat is 1/4 cent higher at $6.83-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 3/4 cent higher at $7.37, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1/4 cent lower at $7.05-3/4.
Ahead of today’s WASDE report, traders expect 2026/27 U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase to around 722 mb, up from 717 mb in September. Globally, 2025/26 ending stocks are expected to decline 0.2 MMT to 280.4 MMT, while 2026/27 stocks are projected to increase 0.5 MMT to 276.8 MMT.
USDA reported 16.6 mb of new 2026/27 wheat export sales. Weekly shipments totaled just 8.0 mb, well below the 15.2 mb pace needed to reach USDA’s 775 mb export forecast. Total 2026/27 export commitments now stand at 371 mb, down 32% from a year ago.

Matthew Lucas