TFM Midday Update 10-12-2026

CORN

Corn futures have edged higher this morning. December futures are a ¼ cent higher at 480-1/4 while March futures are unchanged at 494-1/4.
Friday’s WASDE report surprised the market with a national corn yield increase to 181.2 bpa, pushing production above 16 billion bushels and raising projected ending stocks to 1.85 billion bushels from 1.57 billion in September.
China’s corn consumption is expected to decline in 2026/27 as increased use of alternative grains reduces demand, according to the country’s agriculture ministry.
Remnants of Hurricane Isaias brought showers north of the Ohio River this weekend, but most areas remained warm and dry, with record highs in parts of the West. Colder air is expected into late October, while precipitation is forecast to remain mostly below normal.

Soybean futures are lower at midday. November futures are 8-3/4 cents lower at 1283-1/2 while March futures are 8-1/4 lower at 1310-1/2.
Last week’s WASDE report was largely neutral for soybeans, with U.S. ending stocks rising slightly to 315 mb. The national yield estimate increased to a record 53.1 bpa.
An open harvest window should have allowed U.S. soybean harvest to make solid progress over the past week. Mostly dry weather is expected north of I-80 this week, while areas to the south face rain chances.
Brazilian soybean planting is advancing at a record pace, with 20% of the crop planted as of late last week, according to AgroNegocios. Early-season rains have encouraged producers to accelerate planting and establish the crop.

The wheat complex is mixed but mostly lower. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat 2-1/2 cents lower at 668-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 7 cents lower at 712, and Minneapolis spring wheat is unchanged at 695.
President Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia offered a potential positive signal for peace prospects. However, restrained reactions from both countries have limited the market response.
Moisture is expected across much of the Plains over the coming week as a tropical system moves north from Mexico.
Moisture looks to continue across much of the Plains over the coming week with a tropical system moving up from Mexico.

Keegan Madigan