TFM Morning Update 10-15-2026

CORN

Corn futures have edged slightly lower as the market continues to consolidate. December corn is 3/4 cent lower at $4.80, while March corn is 1/2 cent lower at $4.93-3/4.
The delayed Crop Progress report showed 33% of the U.S. corn crop harvested as of Sunday, 6 percentage points behind the five-year average. Harvest progress was especially slow in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota, with Iowa trailing its average pace by 20 percentage points.
A wetter weather pattern is expected to return to the Corn Belt this week, potentially keeping harvest progress slow. Looking toward the end of October, forecasts for above-normal temperatures and precipitation could continue to limit fieldwork.

Soybean futures have slipped lower, trading near the bottom of their recent range. November soybeans are 4 cents lower at $12.73-1/4, while January soybeans are also 4 cents lower at $12.88.
Chinese government buyers reportedly booked 8 to 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans Tuesday for shipment beginning in December. USDA followed Wednesday by confirming private sales of 470,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China in its daily export sales announcement.
NOPA is scheduled to release its September U.S. soybean crush data Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the crush to fall to a one-year low of 203.737 mb, while end-of-month soybean oil stocks are projected at 1.116 billion pounds, the lowest since November 2024.

The wheat complex is mixed but mostly lower, with Minneapolis spring wheat posting slight gains. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 1 cent lower at $6.72-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 2 cents lower at $7.13, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1-1/4 cents higher at $6.91-1/4.
USDA’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat planting advanced 15 percentage points last week to 51% complete, below the five-year average of 58%. Emergence reached 27%, also trailing the five-year average of 32%.
Ukraine’s largest farmer union expects 2026/27 wheat exports to reach no more than 11 MMT, down from 14 MMT last season and below USDA’s current projection of 12.5 MMT.

Matthew Lucas