TFM Morning Update 10-16-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower as the market continues to grapple with expectations for ample supplies. December corn is 1-3/4 cents lower at $4.76-1/4, while March corn is 2 cents lower at $4.89.
Corn futures fell to their lowest level in eight weeks as expectations for a larger U.S. crop and higher inventories outweighed the slower harvest pace. In its October WASDE report, USDA raised its 2026/27 U.S. corn yield estimate to 181.2 bpa from 178.5 bpa and projected production at 16.034 billion bushels, with ending stocks forecast at 1.849 billion bushels.
USDA also raised its U.S. corn export forecast by 25 mb to 3.3 billion bushels, reflecting stronger demand and providing some underlying support. However, expectations for abundant supplies continued to overshadow the improved export outlook, keeping pressure on corn prices.

Soybean futures have moved lower, with November futures approaching structural support. November soybeans are 3-1/4 cents lower at $12.59-3/4, while January soybeans are 3 cents lower at $12.74-3/4.
Fresh Chinese purchases provided some support to Chicago soybean prices. Chinese state buyers purchased roughly 18 to 23 cargoes, or about 1.2 to 1.5 MMT, of U.S. soybeans this week. Some of those sales have since been confirmed through USDA’s daily export reporting system.
The purchases helped ease concerns over Chinese demand after buyers had largely remained on the sidelines for several weeks, partly due to the National Day holiday. The return of Chinese state buyers has been viewed as a positive signal for U.S. soybean export demand.

The wheat complex is trading lower across the board, with the winter wheat classes posting the heaviest losses. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 9 cents lower at $6.61, Kansas City wheat is 7 cents lower at $7.06, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1/2 cent lower at $6.85-1/2.
Recent assessments point to a significantly larger Australian harvest. During a two-day crop tour, scouts from the Grain Industry Association of Victoria reported strong yield potential across the region, with only limited signs of water damage and disease.
The prospect of increased Australian wheat supplies could ease pressure on buyers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East as escalating Black Sea tensions threaten grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine.

Matthew Lucas