TFM Morning Update 10-21-2026

CORN

Corn futures are facing pressure again this morning. December corn is 2-3/4 cents lower at $4.59-1/4, while March corn is 2 cents lower at $4.74.
Corn export demand remains a concern early in the marketing year. As of last week, sales on the books accounted for just 25% of USDA’s full-year export forecast, compared with an average of nearly 34% at this point in the year.
USDA has reported only two corn sales during October. While it remains early in the marketing year, the current pace has increased concerns over whether exports will meet USDA’s full-year forecast.

Soybean futures have slipped lower despite a reported sale to China yesterday. November soybeans are 3-1/2 cents lower at $12.44-3/4, while January soybeans are also 3-1/2 cents lower at $12.60.
Private exporters reported a sale of 612,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year, following earlier sales of 261,000 MT to unknown destinations and 114,000 MT to China. The recent pullback in soybean prices may be helping generate additional export demand.
Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed soybean harvest advancing at a solid pace. USDA reported 64% of the crop harvested, up 18 percentage points from the previous week and just 1 point behind the five-year average of 65%.

The wheat complex is trading lower across the board this morning. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 4-3/4 cents lower at $6.38-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 5-1/2 cents lower at $6.85-1/2, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1-1/4 cents lower at $6.60-1/2.
According to the Grain Industry Association of Victoria, a recent crop tour found wheat yields in the state averaging 3.8 MT per hectare, 52% higher than a year ago. The estimate is also above the Australian Department of Agriculture’s current yield outlook, adding to expectations for a larger Australian wheat crop.
Ukraine is working with Turkey, Egypt, and India on a proposal to reopen safer shipping lanes through the Black Sea. Russia has so far resisted the arrangement, though the growing diplomatic push is adding pressure for a potential reopening of commercial grain routes.

Matthew Lucas