TFM Morning Update 10-22-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher as the market finally finds support following recent pressure. December corn is 1 cent higher at $4.64-1/4, while March corn is 3/4 cent higher at $4.78.
U.S. export inspections fell nearly 49% from the previous week to 672,475 MT during the week ending October 15, marking the lowest weekly total since October 2024. Shipments for the 2026/27 marketing year are now running 2.3% behind last year’s pace.
USDA’s October outlook projected record U.S. corn production of 16.03 billion bushels and ending stocks of 1.849 billion bushels, reinforcing expectations for ample supplies. Although USDA raised its export forecast to 3.3 billion bushels, improving harvest progress and disappointing export shipments have continued to pressure the market.

Soybean futures have edged slightly higher this morning. November soybeans are 1-3/4 cents higher at $12.47, while January soybeans are also 1-3/4 cents higher at $12.60.
Private exporters reported two soybean sales Wednesday: 134,000 MT to China and 165,000 MT to Spain, both for the 2026/27 marketing year. These followed Tuesday’s sale of 612,000 MT to China, along with two additional soybean sales reported earlier in the week.
Thursday morning’s Export Sales report will be closely watched, with analysts surveyed by Reuters expecting 1.8 to 3.0 MMT of 2026/27 soybean sales for the week ending October 15. Daily sales announcements during the week totaled 1.877 MMT, while 2027/28 bookings are expected to range from zero to 25,000 MT.

The wheat complex is facing pressure again this morning. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 3/4 cent lower at $6.27-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 2-3/4 cents lower at $6.70-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1-1/2 cents lower at $6.50.
U.S. wheat export sales have disappointed so far this marketing year. However, the recent decline in prices has reportedly made U.S. soft red winter wheat more competitive than French and Australian supplies, potentially improving export demand.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a potential meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss the war. No formal agreement on the meeting has been reached, and Ukraine has criticized the proposal because Kyiv would not be included in the talks.

Matthew Lucas