CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn market reversed early session lows and closed higher on the session, breaking a six-day losing streak in the corn market. December corn gained 1 ¼ cents to 463 ¼, and March corn added 1 ¼ cents to 477 ¼. The December corn futures finished 9 ¾ cents off the session low of 453 ½.
• Corn futures initially broke below the August lows amid heavy selling in wheat and soybeans. However, the move appeared to trigger buying interest and short covering, fueling a sharp reversal. Follow-through buying through the end of the week will be key to sustaining the recovery.
• Ethanol production last week increased to 322 million gallons, up 9 million gallons from last week, and up 2% over last year. A total of 107 mb was estimated to be used in ethanol production; this is slightly behind the pace to reach the USDA target for usage for the marketing year.
• USDA will release corn export sales for the week ending October 15 on Thursday morning. The expected range is from 700,000-1.5 MMT for new corn sales. Last week’s sales totaled 1.122 MMT as early corn sales have been lackluster to start the marketing year.
• Friendly weather forecasts across most of the Corn Belt going into next week should help support the corn harvest. Strong harvest pace will keep pressure on the corn market, limiting short-term rally potential.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the eighth consecutive day as funds continue to exit their long positions as harvest progresses. While prices closed lower, they recovered from their lows earlier in the day by 10 cents, which is encouraging. Another slew of export sales to China may have slowed fund selling today.
• November soybeans lost 3 cents to $12.45-1/4 with support at the 100-day moving average near $12.27. March soybeans lost 7 cents to $12.66-1/4 in bull spreading action. December soybean meal lost $0.40 to $348.30, while December soybean oil lost 0.76 cents to 65.97 cents. December crude oil is down 63 cents a barrel to $97.18.
• Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 6.40 MMT in October, while soybean meal exports are projected at 2.52 MMT. Heavy rainfall in growing areas such as Paraná raises concerns about flooding and potential damage to soybean and corn crops. The developing Super El Niño weather pattern could contribute to increased weather volatility.
• There were two sales of soybeans today, the first a sale of 134,000 metric tons of soybeans to China and 165,000 metric tons to Spain, both for the 26/27 marketing year. This follows a sale of 612,000 mt of soybeans to China yesterday and 2 other sales earlier this week.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite a positive turnaround for corn, wheat closed with double-digit losses in all three classes. This may be largely due to comments by Ukrainian President Zelensky that he would be hypothetically willing to accept a peace deal that freezes front lines. Additionally, US, Russian, and Chinese leaders are considering a meeting to discuss ending the war, though Ukraine was said to not have been invited. In the December contract, Chicago fell 15 cents to 628-1/4, Kansas City dropped 18 cents to 673, and MIAX lost 10-1/4 cents to 651-1/2.
• U.S. wheat export sales have disappointed so far this marketing year. However, the recent price decline reportedly makes U.S. soft red winter wheat cheaper than French and Australian supplies, potentially improving export competitiveness and supporting demand.
• Since the beginning of their 26/27 marketing year in July, through October 20, Iran has been the largest purchaser of Russian grain at 1.72 mmt. Egypt came in a close second at 1.35 mmt, followed by lesser amounts in Azerbaijan, Latvia, and Nigeria.  
• According to their ag ministry, Ukraine’s grain harvest has reached 39.06 mmt so far. This represents about 68% of the sown area, with 60 mmt of grain expected to be collected in total. Wheat has been harvested on about 5.11 million hectares, with 26.2 mmt collected.
• A NATO spokesperson has indicated that they have discussed Black Sea security and will be “sending additional assets to the region”. This would reportedly include support for surveillance, reconnaissance, and forensics.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures faced pressure today, ending lower across the board. November fell 61 cents to close at $17.48.
• Spot cheese fell 4.875 cents today to close at $1.71125/lb.
• Spot whey fell 5.25 cents today to close at $0.8425/lb, marking its first decline since August 19.
• Class IV milk futures also closed lower, with November down 37 cents to $20.83.
• Spot butter fell 3 cents to close at $1.3300/lb, while spot powder dropped 7.50 cents to $2.1350/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty